Canada’s federal government has implemented sharp reductions in immigration targets through its 2025–2027 Immigration Levels Plan, capping permanent resident admissions at 380,000 annually and temporary resident inflows at 385,000 in 2026. These measures, aimed at lowering the non-permanent resident share of the population toward 5 percent by late 2026, produced Canada’s first annual population decline on record in 2025, with a 0.2 percent drop of roughly 102,000 people driven by net outflows of temporary residents. Parliamentary Budget Officer and Statistics Canada projections indicate flat or modestly negative growth again in 2026, though the pace of contraction may moderate as inflows stabilize at lower levels. Traders’ modest lean toward “No” reflects expectations that the 2025 decline could remain the largest in magnitude, with any 2026 contraction unlikely to exceed it absent further policy shifts.