Diplomatic expulsions of U.S. ambassadors remain infrequent due to the high costs of severing formal ties with Washington and the preference for lower-level rebukes such as summons or persona non grata declarations. No verified expulsions have occurred in 2026 despite earlier calls from Iran offering transit incentives through the Strait of Hormuz and isolated frictions, including South African political rhetoric in 2025. The Trump administration’s large-scale recall of career ambassadors has left over 100 posts vacant, reducing the number of sitting envoys who could become targets. Traders price the “No” outcome at 65.5 percent because scheduled elections, ongoing conflicts, and alliance dynamics have not produced the bilateral breakdowns needed for such a step by year-end, though sudden crises in regions like the Middle East or Africa could still alter that assessment before December 31.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$16,863 KL.
$16,863 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
$16,863 KL.
$16,863 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Diplomatic expulsions of U.S. ambassadors remain infrequent due to the high costs of severing formal ties with Washington and the preference for lower-level rebukes such as summons or persona non grata declarations. No verified expulsions have occurred in 2026 despite earlier calls from Iran offering transit incentives through the Strait of Hormuz and isolated frictions, including South African political rhetoric in 2025. The Trump administration’s large-scale recall of career ambassadors has left over 100 posts vacant, reducing the number of sitting envoys who could become targets. Traders price the “No” outcome at 65.5 percent because scheduled elections, ongoing conflicts, and alliance dynamics have not produced the bilateral breakdowns needed for such a step by year-end, though sudden crises in regions like the Middle East or Africa could still alter that assessment before December 31.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ET
Khối lượng
$16,863Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Diplomatic expulsions of U.S. ambassadors remain infrequent due to the high costs of severing formal ties with Washington and the preference for lower-level rebukes such as summons or persona non grata declarations. No verified expulsions have occurred in 2026 despite earlier calls from Iran offering transit incentives through the Strait of Hormuz and isolated frictions, including South African political rhetoric in 2025. The Trump administration’s large-scale recall of career ambassadors has left over 100 posts vacant, reducing the number of sitting envoys who could become targets. Traders price the “No” outcome at 65.5 percent because scheduled elections, ongoing conflicts, and alliance dynamics have not produced the bilateral breakdowns needed for such a step by year-end, though sudden crises in regions like the Middle East or Africa could still alter that assessment before December 31.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$16,863Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Diplomatic expulsions of U.S. ambassadors remain infrequent due to the high costs of severing formal ties with Washington and the preference for lower-level rebukes such as summons or persona non grata declarations. No verified expulsions have occurred in 2026 despite earlier calls from Iran offering transit incentives through the Strait of Hormuz and isolated frictions, including South African political rhetoric in 2025. The Trump administration’s large-scale recall of career ambassadors has left over 100 posts vacant, reducing the number of sitting envoys who could become targets. Traders price the “No” outcome at 65.5 percent because scheduled elections, ongoing conflicts, and alliance dynamics have not produced the bilateral breakdowns needed for such a step by year-end, though sudden crises in regions like the Middle East or Africa could still alter that assessment before December 31.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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