Anthropic leads the IPO race with 95.8% market-implied odds because OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has explicitly ruled out a 2026 listing, citing the need to prioritize AI safety and alignment work before facing public-market scrutiny. Anthropic, by contrast, has advanced its confidential S-1 filing into concrete November 2026 plans, including a potential mid-month roadshow and $2 trillion valuation target supported by surging revenue run rates. Traders view these public statements and filing timelines as decisive near-term signals. Still, last-minute shifts remain possible if Anthropic encounters regulatory delays, unfavorable market conditions, or if OpenAI accelerates its safety milestones enough to revisit 2026.