OpenAI’s decision to rule out any 2026 IPO, with CEO Sam Altman citing the need to prioritize AI safety and alignment work on its large language models ahead of a potential public listing, has anchored trader consensus around Anthropic reaching the market first. Anthropic confidentially filed its S-1 in June and is now targeting a November debut on Nasdaq, with roadshow marketing eyed for the week of November 9, positioning it to begin trading before Thanksgiving at a valuation potentially exceeding $1.8 trillion. This timeline contrast reflects Anthropic’s enterprise-focused revenue growth and infrastructure investments versus OpenAI’s private fundraising flexibility at over $850 billion. Key upcoming catalysts include Anthropic’s third-quarter results and any shifts in regulatory scrutiny around AI company disclosures, though further market volatility or extended safety reviews remain plausible variables that could narrow the gap.