Avengers: Doomsday's commanding 78% market-implied probability stems primarily from its December 18 holiday release slot, which historically fuels record openings for major MCU tentpoles, combined with Robert Downey Jr.'s high-profile return as Doctor Doom, the Russo brothers' direction, and the six-year gap since the last Avengers film. Recent teaser trailer momentum and a poll of over 700 industry insiders naming it the likely 2026 global earner have reinforced trader consensus around its event-level presales potential. Spider-Man: Brand New Day sits at 17.5% thanks to its July 31 summer positioning and fresh marketing, though it lacks the year-end audience surge. The Odyssey, Toy Story 5, and other entries trail with single-digit shares amid more modest franchise expectations and seasonal competition. Expanded tracking reports ahead of the holiday window represent the next key catalyst.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtWhich movie has biggest opening week in 2026?
Which movie has biggest opening week in 2026?
Avengers: Doomsday 73%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day 22%
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie 12.4%
The Odyssey 4.1%
$20,430 KL.
$20,430 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
Avengers: Doomsday
81%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
16%
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
8%
The Odyssey
4%
Dune: Messiah
4%
Toy Story 5
2%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
2%
Avengers: Doomsday 73%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day 22%
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie 12.4%
The Odyssey 4.1%
$20,430 KL.
$20,430 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
Avengers: Doomsday
$1,180 KL.
81%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
$1,135 KL.
16%
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
$1,299 KL.
8%
The Odyssey
$1,127 KL.
4%
Dune: Messiah
$856 KL.
4%
Toy Story 5
$707 KL.
2%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
$1,089 KL.
2%
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening week than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekly Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office will be used to resolve this market once the values for the opening week are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its domestic opening week than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekly Box Office Performance for the opening week, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's opening week.
If another movie's opening week box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Avengers: Doomsday's commanding 78% market-implied probability stems primarily from its December 18 holiday release slot, which historically fuels record openings for major MCU tentpoles, combined with Robert Downey Jr.'s high-profile return as Doctor Doom, the Russo brothers' direction, and the six-year gap since the last Avengers film. Recent teaser trailer momentum and a poll of over 700 industry insiders naming it the likely 2026 global earner have reinforced trader consensus around its event-level presales potential. Spider-Man: Brand New Day sits at 17.5% thanks to its July 31 summer positioning and fresh marketing, though it lacks the year-end audience surge. The Odyssey, Toy Story 5, and other entries trail with single-digit shares amid more modest franchise expectations and seasonal competition. Expanded tracking reports ahead of the holiday window represent the next key catalyst.
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening week than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekly Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office will be used to resolve this market once the values for the opening week are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its domestic opening week than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekly Box Office Performance for the opening week, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's opening week.
If another movie's opening week box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its domestic opening week than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekly Box Office Performance for the opening week, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's opening week.
If another movie's opening week box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Thị trường mở: Apr 16, 2026, 3:17 PM ET
Khối lượng
$20,430Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 16, 2026, 3:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening week than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekly Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office will be used to resolve this market once the values for the opening week are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its domestic opening week than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekly Box Office Performance for the opening week, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's opening week.
If another movie's opening week box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Avengers: Doomsday's commanding 78% market-implied probability stems primarily from its December 18 holiday release slot, which historically fuels record openings for major MCU tentpoles, combined with Robert Downey Jr.'s high-profile return as Doctor Doom, the Russo brothers' direction, and the six-year gap since the last Avengers film. Recent teaser trailer momentum and a poll of over 700 industry insiders naming it the likely 2026 global earner have reinforced trader consensus around its event-level presales potential. Spider-Man: Brand New Day sits at 17.5% thanks to its July 31 summer positioning and fresh marketing, though it lacks the year-end audience surge. The Odyssey, Toy Story 5, and other entries trail with single-digit shares amid more modest franchise expectations and seasonal competition. Expanded tracking reports ahead of the holiday window represent the next key catalyst.
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening week than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekly Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office will be used to resolve this market once the values for the opening week are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its domestic opening week than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekly Box Office Performance for the opening week, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's opening week.
If another movie's opening week box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its domestic opening week than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekly Box Office Performance for the opening week, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's opening week.
If another movie's opening week box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Khối lượng
$20,430Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 16, 2026, 3:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Avengers: Doomsday's commanding 78% market-implied probability stems primarily from its December 18 holiday release slot, which historically fuels record openings for major MCU tentpoles, combined with Robert Downey Jr.'s high-profile return as Doctor Doom, the Russo brothers' direction, and the six-year gap since the last Avengers film. Recent teaser trailer momentum and a poll of over 700 industry insiders naming it the likely 2026 global earner have reinforced trader consensus around its event-level presales potential. Spider-Man: Brand New Day sits at 17.5% thanks to its July 31 summer positioning and fresh marketing, though it lacks the year-end audience surge. The Odyssey, Toy Story 5, and other entries trail with single-digit shares amid more modest franchise expectations and seasonal competition. Expanded tracking reports ahead of the holiday window represent the next key catalyst.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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