Google's Veo 3.1 and Gemini Omni Flash models drive the 87.5% implied probability, reflecting trader consensus on their edge in native synchronized audio, 4K resolution, prompt adherence, and consistent top rankings across text-to-video arenas as of mid-2026. Recent updates to the Veo family, including expanded access via Gemini API and Flow tools, have strengthened Google's position against competitors like ByteDance's Seedance 2.0 or Kuaishou's Kling 3.0, which trail in overall benchmarks despite strong motion or value metrics. With the market resolving at end of September 2026, traders appear focused on Google's demonstrated production capabilities and ecosystem integration rather than narrower strengths from lower-odds options like Runway or Luma AI.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtGoogle 88%
Luma AI 4.0%
Runway 3.6%
ByteDance 1.6%
$21,489 KL.
$21,489 KL.
Sep 30, 2026
88%
Luma AI
4%
Runway
4%
ByteDance
2%
MiniMax
1%
Pruna
1%
Tencent
1%
Genmo AI
1%
OpenAI
1%
Pixverse
1%
KlingAI
1%
Lightricks
1%
Pika
1%
Alibaba/Alibaba-ATH
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Kandinsky
<1%
Meta
<1%
Google 88%
Luma AI 4.0%
Runway 3.6%
ByteDance 1.6%
$21,489 KL.
$21,489 KL.
Sep 30, 2026
$14,231 KL.
88%
Luma AI
$400 KL.
4%
Runway
$547 KL.
4%
ByteDance
$982 KL.
2%
MiniMax
$645 KL.
1%
Pruna
$399 KL.
1%
Tencent
$350 KL.
1%
Genmo AI
$436 KL.
1%
OpenAI
$387 KL.
1%
Pixverse
$370 KL.
1%
KlingAI
$423 KL.
1%
Lightricks
$431 KL.
1%
Pika
$453 KL.
1%
Alibaba/Alibaba-ATH
$365 KL.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$458 KL.
<1%
Kandinsky
$370 KL.
<1%
Meta
$246 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google's Veo 3.1 and Gemini Omni Flash models drive the 87.5% implied probability, reflecting trader consensus on their edge in native synchronized audio, 4K resolution, prompt adherence, and consistent top rankings across text-to-video arenas as of mid-2026. Recent updates to the Veo family, including expanded access via Gemini API and Flow tools, have strengthened Google's position against competitors like ByteDance's Seedance 2.0 or Kuaishou's Kling 3.0, which trail in overall benchmarks despite strong motion or value metrics. With the market resolving at end of September 2026, traders appear focused on Google's demonstrated production capabilities and ecosystem integration rather than narrower strengths from lower-odds options like Runway or Luma AI.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Thị trường mở: Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ET
Khối lượng
$21,489Ngày kết thúc
Oct 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google's Veo 3.1 and Gemini Omni Flash models drive the 87.5% implied probability, reflecting trader consensus on their edge in native synchronized audio, 4K resolution, prompt adherence, and consistent top rankings across text-to-video arenas as of mid-2026. Recent updates to the Veo family, including expanded access via Gemini API and Flow tools, have strengthened Google's position against competitors like ByteDance's Seedance 2.0 or Kuaishou's Kling 3.0, which trail in overall benchmarks despite strong motion or value metrics. With the market resolving at end of September 2026, traders appear focused on Google's demonstrated production capabilities and ecosystem integration rather than narrower strengths from lower-odds options like Runway or Luma AI.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Khối lượng
$21,489Ngày kết thúc
Oct 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Google's Veo 3.1 and Gemini Omni Flash models drive the 87.5% implied probability, reflecting trader consensus on their edge in native synchronized audio, 4K resolution, prompt adherence, and consistent top rankings across text-to-video arenas as of mid-2026. Recent updates to the Veo family, including expanded access via Gemini API and Flow tools, have strengthened Google's position against competitors like ByteDance's Seedance 2.0 or Kuaishou's Kling 3.0, which trail in overall benchmarks despite strong motion or value metrics. With the market resolving at end of September 2026, traders appear focused on Google's demonstrated production capabilities and ecosystem integration rather than narrower strengths from lower-odds options like Runway or Luma AI.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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