Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 currently tops recent LiveBench snapshots with an overall score near 83.4 percent, outpacing OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol and GPT-5.5 variants on the contamination-resistant 2026-06-25 question set across reasoning, coding, math, and instruction-following categories. This established lead, combined with limited time before the end-of-September snapshot and no confirmed competing releases in the final weeks, drives the 90.5 percent market-implied probability. Traders price in persistence of the current frontier model unless OpenAI or another lab ships a higher-scoring update that qualifies under LiveBench rules before September 30.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtAnthropic 91%
OpenAI 5.5%
Meta <1%
Google <1%
$54,692 KL.
$54,692 KL.
Sep 30, 2026
Anthropic
91%
OpenAI
6%
Meta
<1%
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Amazon
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Thinky
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 91%
OpenAI 5.5%
Meta <1%
Google <1%
$54,692 KL.
$54,692 KL.
Sep 30, 2026
Anthropic
$16,586 KL.
91%
OpenAI
$13,009 KL.
6%
Meta
$1,681 KL.
<1%
$2,566 KL.
<1%
Alibaba
$1,916 KL.
<1%
Moonshot
$1,609 KL.
<1%
Baidu
$706 KL.
<1%
Z.ai
$2,337 KL.
<1%
Xiaomi
$989 KL.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$2,393 KL.
<1%
DeepSeek
$737 KL.
<1%
Amazon
$836 KL.
<1%
ByteDance
$681 KL.
<1%
Nvidia
$790 KL.
<1%
Thinky
$722 KL.
<1%
MiniMax
$1,233 KL.
<1%
Mistral
$2,467 KL.
<1%
Meituan
$1,108 KL.
<1%
Tencent
$806 KL.
<1%
StepFun
$488 KL.
<1%
Microsoft
$1,031 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 currently tops recent LiveBench snapshots with an overall score near 83.4 percent, outpacing OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol and GPT-5.5 variants on the contamination-resistant 2026-06-25 question set across reasoning, coding, math, and instruction-following categories. This established lead, combined with limited time before the end-of-September snapshot and no confirmed competing releases in the final weeks, drives the 90.5 percent market-implied probability. Traders price in persistence of the current frontier model unless OpenAI or another lab ships a higher-scoring update that qualifies under LiveBench rules before September 30.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Thị trường mở: Jul 29, 2026, 6:13 PM ET
Khối lượng
$54,692Ngày kết thúc
Oct 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 29, 2026, 6:13 PM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://livebench.ai/Người giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 currently tops recent LiveBench snapshots with an overall score near 83.4 percent, outpacing OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol and GPT-5.5 variants on the contamination-resistant 2026-06-25 question set across reasoning, coding, math, and instruction-following categories. This established lead, combined with limited time before the end-of-September snapshot and no confirmed competing releases in the final weeks, drives the 90.5 percent market-implied probability. Traders price in persistence of the current frontier model unless OpenAI or another lab ships a higher-scoring update that qualifies under LiveBench rules before September 30.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Khối lượng
$54,692Ngày kết thúc
Oct 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 29, 2026, 6:13 PM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://livebench.ai/Người giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 currently tops recent LiveBench snapshots with an overall score near 83.4 percent, outpacing OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol and GPT-5.5 variants on the contamination-resistant 2026-06-25 question set across reasoning, coding, math, and instruction-following categories. This established lead, combined with limited time before the end-of-September snapshot and no confirmed competing releases in the final weeks, drives the 90.5 percent market-implied probability. Traders price in persistence of the current frontier model unless OpenAI or another lab ships a higher-scoring update that qualifies under LiveBench rules before September 30.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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