Anthropic's dominant 84.5% implied probability stems from its Claude Fable 5 and Opus series maintaining top or near-top LiveBench overall scores in mid-2026 snapshots, with recent versions posting strong results across reasoning, coding, and data analysis categories that outpace most competitors. Traders see limited near-term risk of slippage before the October 31 resolution, given Anthropic's track record of targeted updates and safety-focused refinements that have kept its large language models competitive on contamination-resistant benchmarks like LiveBench. OpenAI trails at just 7% despite o3-mini and GPT-5 variants leading some September leaderboards, as markets price in slower expected gains or delays in frontier releases. Chinese labs such as DeepSeek, Moonshot, and Alibaba sit below 1%, reflecting narrower gaps on verifiable overall scores and fewer confirmed high-effort submissions. Key swing factors include any late-September model drops or benchmark refreshes that could shift the narrow top-tier margin.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtAnthropic 85%
OpenAI 7%
StepFun <1%
Moonshot <1%
$20,722 KL.
$20,722 KL.
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
85%
OpenAI
7%
StepFun
1%
Moonshot
1%
Z.ai
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
DeepSeek
1%
ByteDance
1%
Nvidia
1%
MiniMax
1%
Mistral
1%
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Meta
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Tencent
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Anthropic 85%
OpenAI 7%
StepFun <1%
Moonshot <1%
$20,722 KL.
$20,722 KL.
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
$9,066 KL.
85%
OpenAI
$2,990 KL.
7%
StepFun
$445 KL.
1%
Moonshot
$465 KL.
1%
Z.ai
$433 KL.
1%
SpaceXAI
$443 KL.
1%
DeepSeek
$435 KL.
1%
ByteDance
$492 KL.
1%
Nvidia
$498 KL.
1%
MiniMax
$471 KL.
1%
Mistral
$459 KL.
1%
$411 KL.
<1%
Alibaba
$386 KL.
<1%
Meta
$481 KL.
<1%
Baidu
$494 KL.
<1%
Amazon
$481 KL.
<1%
Tencent
$492 KL.
<1%
Thinky
$445 KL.
<1%
Xiaomi
$445 KL.
<1%
Microsoft
$457 KL.
<1%
Meituan
$431 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic's dominant 84.5% implied probability stems from its Claude Fable 5 and Opus series maintaining top or near-top LiveBench overall scores in mid-2026 snapshots, with recent versions posting strong results across reasoning, coding, and data analysis categories that outpace most competitors. Traders see limited near-term risk of slippage before the October 31 resolution, given Anthropic's track record of targeted updates and safety-focused refinements that have kept its large language models competitive on contamination-resistant benchmarks like LiveBench. OpenAI trails at just 7% despite o3-mini and GPT-5 variants leading some September leaderboards, as markets price in slower expected gains or delays in frontier releases. Chinese labs such as DeepSeek, Moonshot, and Alibaba sit below 1%, reflecting narrower gaps on verifiable overall scores and fewer confirmed high-effort submissions. Key swing factors include any late-September model drops or benchmark refreshes that could shift the narrow top-tier margin.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Thị trường mở: Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ET
Khối lượng
$20,722Ngày kết thúc
Nov 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic's dominant 84.5% implied probability stems from its Claude Fable 5 and Opus series maintaining top or near-top LiveBench overall scores in mid-2026 snapshots, with recent versions posting strong results across reasoning, coding, and data analysis categories that outpace most competitors. Traders see limited near-term risk of slippage before the October 31 resolution, given Anthropic's track record of targeted updates and safety-focused refinements that have kept its large language models competitive on contamination-resistant benchmarks like LiveBench. OpenAI trails at just 7% despite o3-mini and GPT-5 variants leading some September leaderboards, as markets price in slower expected gains or delays in frontier releases. Chinese labs such as DeepSeek, Moonshot, and Alibaba sit below 1%, reflecting narrower gaps on verifiable overall scores and fewer confirmed high-effort submissions. Key swing factors include any late-September model drops or benchmark refreshes that could shift the narrow top-tier margin.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Khối lượng
$20,722Ngày kết thúc
Nov 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's dominant 84.5% implied probability stems from its Claude Fable 5 and Opus series maintaining top or near-top LiveBench overall scores in mid-2026 snapshots, with recent versions posting strong results across reasoning, coding, and data analysis categories that outpace most competitors. Traders see limited near-term risk of slippage before the October 31 resolution, given Anthropic's track record of targeted updates and safety-focused refinements that have kept its large language models competitive on contamination-resistant benchmarks like LiveBench. OpenAI trails at just 7% despite o3-mini and GPT-5 variants leading some September leaderboards, as markets price in slower expected gains or delays in frontier releases. Chinese labs such as DeepSeek, Moonshot, and Alibaba sit below 1%, reflecting narrower gaps on verifiable overall scores and fewer confirmed high-effort submissions. Key swing factors include any late-September model drops or benchmark refreshes that could shift the narrow top-tier margin.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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