Anthropic’s dominant position at 86.5% implied probability stems from Claude Fable 5 and Fable 5.1 consistently leading LiveBench’s coding category in recent snapshots, with scores around 86–88% that outpace OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol and GPT-6 Astra entries. Fresh September 2026 releases reinforced Anthropic’s edge in objective coding and agentic coding tasks, while OpenAI’s overall LiveBench gains have not yet translated to the coding subset. With roughly six weeks until the October 31 snapshot, traders see limited scope for a reversal absent a major new model drop or benchmark refresh that disproportionately benefits competitors. This skin-in-the-game consensus prices the current leaderboard momentum and Anthropic’s specialized coding strengths over broader model releases.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtAnthropic 87%
OpenAI 8.1%
SpaceXAI <1%
DeepSeek <1%
$21,079 KL.
$21,079 KL.
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
87%
OpenAI
8%
SpaceXAI
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Mistral
<1%
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Meta
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Amazon
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 87%
OpenAI 8.1%
SpaceXAI <1%
DeepSeek <1%
$21,079 KL.
$21,079 KL.
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
$9,090 KL.
87%
OpenAI
$3,089 KL.
8%
SpaceXAI
$1,081 KL.
1%
DeepSeek
$657 KL.
1%
Mistral
$553 KL.
<1%
$546 KL.
<1%
Nvidia
$499 KL.
<1%
MiniMax
$484 KL.
<1%
Meta
$398 KL.
<1%
Alibaba
$355 KL.
<1%
Moonshot
$310 KL.
<1%
Baidu
$395 KL.
<1%
Z.ai
$507 KL.
<1%
Xiaomi
$468 KL.
<1%
Amazon
$410 KL.
<1%
ByteDance
$363 KL.
<1%
Thinky
$454 KL.
<1%
Meituan
$364 KL.
<1%
Tencent
$297 KL.
<1%
StepFun
$334 KL.
<1%
Microsoft
$426 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic’s dominant position at 86.5% implied probability stems from Claude Fable 5 and Fable 5.1 consistently leading LiveBench’s coding category in recent snapshots, with scores around 86–88% that outpace OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol and GPT-6 Astra entries. Fresh September 2026 releases reinforced Anthropic’s edge in objective coding and agentic coding tasks, while OpenAI’s overall LiveBench gains have not yet translated to the coding subset. With roughly six weeks until the October 31 snapshot, traders see limited scope for a reversal absent a major new model drop or benchmark refresh that disproportionately benefits competitors. This skin-in-the-game consensus prices the current leaderboard momentum and Anthropic’s specialized coding strengths over broader model releases.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Thị trường mở: Aug 12, 2026, 8:05 PM ET
Khối lượng
$21,079Ngày kết thúc
Nov 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 12, 2026, 8:05 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic’s dominant position at 86.5% implied probability stems from Claude Fable 5 and Fable 5.1 consistently leading LiveBench’s coding category in recent snapshots, with scores around 86–88% that outpace OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol and GPT-6 Astra entries. Fresh September 2026 releases reinforced Anthropic’s edge in objective coding and agentic coding tasks, while OpenAI’s overall LiveBench gains have not yet translated to the coding subset. With roughly six weeks until the October 31 snapshot, traders see limited scope for a reversal absent a major new model drop or benchmark refresh that disproportionately benefits competitors. This skin-in-the-game consensus prices the current leaderboard momentum and Anthropic’s specialized coding strengths over broader model releases.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Khối lượng
$21,079Ngày kết thúc
Nov 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 12, 2026, 8:05 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s dominant position at 86.5% implied probability stems from Claude Fable 5 and Fable 5.1 consistently leading LiveBench’s coding category in recent snapshots, with scores around 86–88% that outpace OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol and GPT-6 Astra entries. Fresh September 2026 releases reinforced Anthropic’s edge in objective coding and agentic coding tasks, while OpenAI’s overall LiveBench gains have not yet translated to the coding subset. With roughly six weeks until the October 31 snapshot, traders see limited scope for a reversal absent a major new model drop or benchmark refresh that disproportionately benefits competitors. This skin-in-the-game consensus prices the current leaderboard momentum and Anthropic’s specialized coding strengths over broader model releases.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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