Anthropic's recent launch of Claude Fable 5.1, which topped multiple independent leaderboards including BenchAlign and Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index with scores around 83 as of early September 2026, drives the strong 75.5% market-implied odds for the company holding the best large language model by end of October. Traders appear to weigh Anthropic's consistent frontier positioning in reasoning, coding, and agentic benchmarks against OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra release claiming gains in software engineering and cybersecurity, reflected in its lower 14.4% odds. Google, Meta, and other providers trail significantly on current verified results, with no major releases shifting the competitive landscape in the past week. Key upcoming catalysts include any additional model updates or benchmark revisions before the October resolution date.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtAnthropic 76%
OpenAI 14.4%
Google 6.8%
Meta 1.8%
$149,904 KL.
$149,904 KL.
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
76%
OpenAI
14%
7%
Meta
2%
SpaceXAI
1%
Z.ai
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Baidu
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Thinky
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 76%
OpenAI 14.4%
Google 6.8%
Meta 1.8%
$149,904 KL.
$149,904 KL.
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
$29,338 KL.
76%
OpenAI
$12,944 KL.
14%
$10,774 KL.
7%
Meta
$12,831 KL.
2%
SpaceXAI
$8,448 KL.
1%
Z.ai
$12,408 KL.
1%
DeepSeek
$8,754 KL.
1%
Alibaba
$8,715 KL.
<1%
Moonshot
$10,013 KL.
<1%
Baidu
$7,108 KL.
<1%
ByteDance
$6,678 KL.
<1%
Nvidia
$6,679 KL.
<1%
Xiaomi
$1,471 KL.
<1%
Amazon
$2,066 KL.
<1%
Thinky
$925 KL.
<1%
MiniMax
$1,262 KL.
<1%
Mistral
$1,800 KL.
<1%
Meituan
$4,875 KL.
<1%
Tencent
$949 KL.
<1%
StepFun
$540 KL.
<1%
Microsoft
$1,327 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's recent launch of Claude Fable 5.1, which topped multiple independent leaderboards including BenchAlign and Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index with scores around 83 as of early September 2026, drives the strong 75.5% market-implied odds for the company holding the best large language model by end of October. Traders appear to weigh Anthropic's consistent frontier positioning in reasoning, coding, and agentic benchmarks against OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra release claiming gains in software engineering and cybersecurity, reflected in its lower 14.4% odds. Google, Meta, and other providers trail significantly on current verified results, with no major releases shifting the competitive landscape in the past week. Key upcoming catalysts include any additional model updates or benchmark revisions before the October resolution date.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Thị trường mở: Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ET
Khối lượng
$149,904Ngày kết thúc
Nov 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's recent launch of Claude Fable 5.1, which topped multiple independent leaderboards including BenchAlign and Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index with scores around 83 as of early September 2026, drives the strong 75.5% market-implied odds for the company holding the best large language model by end of October. Traders appear to weigh Anthropic's consistent frontier positioning in reasoning, coding, and agentic benchmarks against OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra release claiming gains in software engineering and cybersecurity, reflected in its lower 14.4% odds. Google, Meta, and other providers trail significantly on current verified results, with no major releases shifting the competitive landscape in the past week. Key upcoming catalysts include any additional model updates or benchmark revisions before the October resolution date.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Khối lượng
$149,904Ngày kết thúc
Nov 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's recent launch of Claude Fable 5.1, which topped multiple independent leaderboards including BenchAlign and Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index with scores around 83 as of early September 2026, drives the strong 75.5% market-implied odds for the company holding the best large language model by end of October. Traders appear to weigh Anthropic's consistent frontier positioning in reasoning, coding, and agentic benchmarks against OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra release claiming gains in software engineering and cybersecurity, reflected in its lower 14.4% odds. Google, Meta, and other providers trail significantly on current verified results, with no major releases shifting the competitive landscape in the past week. Key upcoming catalysts include any additional model updates or benchmark revisions before the October resolution date.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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