Anthropic’s recent launch of Claude Fable 5.1 in early September has anchored trader consensus at a 76.5% implied probability for holding the top spot by end of October under style control. The model posts leading or near-leading scores on key evaluations including SWE-bench Pro and coding-agent benchmarks, extending Anthropic’s edge in long-context reasoning and agentic tasks over OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and GPT-5.6 variants. Market pricing reflects sustained leaderboard momentum on lmarena-style arenas rather than raw capability alone, with OpenAI at 10.8% and Meta, Google trailing further due to narrower gaps in the specific resolution criteria. No major releases are scheduled in the immediate six-week window, leaving incremental benchmark updates or fine-tuning as the main near-term variables that could shift the narrow competitive field.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtAnthropic 77%
OpenAI 12.0%
Meta 7.7%
Google 6.0%
$21,086 KL.
$21,086 KL.
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
77%
OpenAI
12%
Meta
8%
6%
Moonshot
1%
Z.ai
1%
Alibaba
1%
Baidu
1%
ByteDance
1%
MiniMax
1%
Thinky
1%
Meituan
1%
Nvidia
1%
Tencent
1%
Microsoft
1%
StepFun
<1%
Amazon
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Anthropic 77%
OpenAI 12.0%
Meta 7.7%
Google 6.0%
$21,086 KL.
$21,086 KL.
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
$12,885 KL.
77%
OpenAI
$695 KL.
12%
Meta
$468 KL.
8%
$539 KL.
6%
Moonshot
$438 KL.
1%
Z.ai
$446 KL.
1%
Alibaba
$406 KL.
1%
Baidu
$246 KL.
1%
ByteDance
$382 KL.
1%
MiniMax
$409 KL.
1%
Thinky
$375 KL.
1%
Meituan
$366 KL.
1%
Nvidia
$371 KL.
1%
Tencent
$366 KL.
1%
Microsoft
$364 KL.
1%
StepFun
$367 KL.
<1%
Amazon
$371 KL.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$328 KL.
<1%
Xiaomi
$502 KL.
<1%
DeepSeek
$388 KL.
<1%
Mistral
$372 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s recent launch of Claude Fable 5.1 in early September has anchored trader consensus at a 76.5% implied probability for holding the top spot by end of October under style control. The model posts leading or near-leading scores on key evaluations including SWE-bench Pro and coding-agent benchmarks, extending Anthropic’s edge in long-context reasoning and agentic tasks over OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and GPT-5.6 variants. Market pricing reflects sustained leaderboard momentum on lmarena-style arenas rather than raw capability alone, with OpenAI at 10.8% and Meta, Google trailing further due to narrower gaps in the specific resolution criteria. No major releases are scheduled in the immediate six-week window, leaving incremental benchmark updates or fine-tuning as the main near-term variables that could shift the narrow competitive field.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Thị trường mở: Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Khối lượng
$21,086Ngày kết thúc
Nov 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s recent launch of Claude Fable 5.1 in early September has anchored trader consensus at a 76.5% implied probability for holding the top spot by end of October under style control. The model posts leading or near-leading scores on key evaluations including SWE-bench Pro and coding-agent benchmarks, extending Anthropic’s edge in long-context reasoning and agentic tasks over OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and GPT-5.6 variants. Market pricing reflects sustained leaderboard momentum on lmarena-style arenas rather than raw capability alone, with OpenAI at 10.8% and Meta, Google trailing further due to narrower gaps in the specific resolution criteria. No major releases are scheduled in the immediate six-week window, leaving incremental benchmark updates or fine-tuning as the main near-term variables that could shift the narrow competitive field.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Khối lượng
$21,086Ngày kết thúc
Nov 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s recent launch of Claude Fable 5.1 in early September has anchored trader consensus at a 76.5% implied probability for holding the top spot by end of October under style control. The model posts leading or near-leading scores on key evaluations including SWE-bench Pro and coding-agent benchmarks, extending Anthropic’s edge in long-context reasoning and agentic tasks over OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and GPT-5.6 variants. Market pricing reflects sustained leaderboard momentum on lmarena-style arenas rather than raw capability alone, with OpenAI at 10.8% and Meta, Google trailing further due to narrower gaps in the specific resolution criteria. No major releases are scheduled in the immediate six-week window, leaving incremental benchmark updates or fine-tuning as the main near-term variables that could shift the narrow competitive field.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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