Anthropic's suite of advanced large language models, including Claude Mythos 5, Opus 5, and Fable 5 released earlier in 2026, currently leads multiple independent benchmarks for reasoning, coding, and intelligence, creating strong trader consensus around its 94.8% implied probability of holding the top spot through the end of August. These models outperform competitors on key metrics like adaptive reasoning and agentic tasks, with no comparable releases from OpenAI or Google in recent weeks to close the gap. A sudden high-capability launch or major benchmark breakthrough by another lab in the next two weeks remains the most plausible way to shift outcomes before resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtAnthropic 95.0%
OpenAI 3.0%
Google 2.1%
SpaceXAI 1.3%
$23,442 KL.
$23,442 KL.
Aug 31, 2026
Anthropic
95%
OpenAI
3%
2%
SpaceXAI
1%
Bytedance
1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Meta
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Tencent
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 95.0%
OpenAI 3.0%
Google 2.1%
SpaceXAI 1.3%
$23,442 KL.
$23,442 KL.
Aug 31, 2026
Anthropic
$5,001 KL.
95%
OpenAI
$2,838 KL.
3%
$2,046 KL.
2%
SpaceXAI
$1,224 KL.
1%
Bytedance
$608 KL.
1%
DeepSeek
$1,180 KL.
<1%
Xiaomi
$718 KL.
<1%
MiniMax
$690 KL.
<1%
StepFun
$721 KL.
<1%
Meta
$1,067 KL.
<1%
Moonshot
$802 KL.
<1%
Alibaba
$1,069 KL.
<1%
Z.ai
$459 KL.
<1%
Baidu
$908 KL.
<1%
Thinky
$330 KL.
<1%
Meituan
$939 KL.
<1%
Mistral
$330 KL.
<1%
Amazon
$774 KL.
<1%
Nvidia
$344 KL.
<1%
Tencent
$891 KL.
<1%
Microsoft
$505 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's suite of advanced large language models, including Claude Mythos 5, Opus 5, and Fable 5 released earlier in 2026, currently leads multiple independent benchmarks for reasoning, coding, and intelligence, creating strong trader consensus around its 94.8% implied probability of holding the top spot through the end of August. These models outperform competitors on key metrics like adaptive reasoning and agentic tasks, with no comparable releases from OpenAI or Google in recent weeks to close the gap. A sudden high-capability launch or major benchmark breakthrough by another lab in the next two weeks remains the most plausible way to shift outcomes before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Thị trường mở: Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ET
Khối lượng
$23,442Ngày kết thúc
Aug 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overallResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's suite of advanced large language models, including Claude Mythos 5, Opus 5, and Fable 5 released earlier in 2026, currently leads multiple independent benchmarks for reasoning, coding, and intelligence, creating strong trader consensus around its 94.8% implied probability of holding the top spot through the end of August. These models outperform competitors on key metrics like adaptive reasoning and agentic tasks, with no comparable releases from OpenAI or Google in recent weeks to close the gap. A sudden high-capability launch or major benchmark breakthrough by another lab in the next two weeks remains the most plausible way to shift outcomes before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Khối lượng
$23,442Ngày kết thúc
Aug 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overallResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's suite of advanced large language models, including Claude Mythos 5, Opus 5, and Fable 5 released earlier in 2026, currently leads multiple independent benchmarks for reasoning, coding, and intelligence, creating strong trader consensus around its 94.8% implied probability of holding the top spot through the end of August. These models outperform competitors on key metrics like adaptive reasoning and agentic tasks, with no comparable releases from OpenAI or Google in recent weeks to close the gap. A sudden high-capability launch or major benchmark breakthrough by another lab in the next two weeks remains the most plausible way to shift outcomes before resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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