Strong El Niño conditions continue to suppress Atlantic tropical cyclone development through elevated vertical wind shear, resulting in the quietest start to the season in the satellite era as of September 11, 2026. The basin has produced only five named storms—Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, and Edouard—all of which remained below hurricane intensity on the Saffir-Simpson scale, with accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) at roughly 7% of the typical mid-September value. No tropical development is expected in the next seven days per National Hurricane Center outlooks, pushing the season toward a record-late first hurricane or potentially none at all. While roughly 60% of seasonal activity historically occurs after the September 10 climatological peak, persistent wind shear and below-normal NOAA forecasts limit near-term intensification and U.S. landfall potential through November 30.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtWhere will a hurricane make landfall in the US during the 2026 hurricane season?
Where will a hurricane make landfall in the US during the 2026 hurricane season?
$16,997 KL.
Dec 7, 2026
Texas
17%
Louisiana
15%
Mississippi
2%
Alabama
7%
Florida
21%
Georgia
7%
South Carolina
10%
North Carolina
17%
Virginia
5%
Maryland
7%
Delaware
8%
New Jersey
9%
New York
3%
Connecticut
3%
Rhode Island
7%
Massachusetts
7%
New Hampshire
7%
Maine
7%
Hawaii
23%
$16,997 KL.
Texas
$168 KL.
17%
Louisiana
$320 KL.
15%
Mississippi
$501 KL.
2%
Alabama
$724 KL.
7%
Florida
$555 KL.
21%
Georgia
$1,579 KL.
7%
South Carolina
$333 KL.
10%
North Carolina
$2,247 KL.
17%
Virginia
$653 KL.
5%
Maryland
$1,232 KL.
7%
Delaware
$481 KL.
8%
New Jersey
$143 KL.
9%
New York
$852 KL.
3%
Connecticut
$450 KL.
3%
Rhode Island
$1,106 KL.
7%
Massachusetts
$1,485 KL.
7%
New Hampshire
$1,011 KL.
7%
Maine
$1,747 KL.
7%
Hawaii
$1,410 KL.
23%
This market resolves based on whether a hurricane will make landfall in the state specified in the title between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A market resolves to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in that state within the timeframe, as described in official National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/); for Hawaii, NOAA Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) advisories also apply. Otherwise, that market resolves to "No".
A hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL) and the NHC reports maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher (Category 1 or greater) at the time of landfall. The state of landfall is determined by the surface center's location when it crosses the coastline. If a single hurricane makes separate landfalls in more than one listed state, each such state resolves to "Yes".
Hurricane season runs from June 1, 2026 - November 30, 2026.
Each market resolves based on the initial NHC (or CPHC) advisory reporting a qualifying landfall in the relevant state, regardless of any later retraction or reanalysis. Each market may only resolve to "No" after November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, if an extension period applies, after December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
If an active tropical cyclone at hurricane strength is over water per official NHC or CPHC advisories as of 11:59 PM ET on November 30, 2026, the relevant market(s) will operate under an extension period of 7 days, and the resolution date will move to December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; a qualifying landfall by that hurricane during the extension period will count toward resolution.
If a qualifying landfall occurs within a market's timeframe (including any extension period) but has not yet been confirmed by an NHC or CPHC advisory by the resolution date, that market will remain open until such an advisory is issued.Strong El Niño conditions continue to suppress Atlantic tropical cyclone development through elevated vertical wind shear, resulting in the quietest start to the season in the satellite era as of September 11, 2026. The basin has produced only five named storms—Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, and Edouard—all of which remained below hurricane intensity on the Saffir-Simpson scale, with accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) at roughly 7% of the typical mid-September value. No tropical development is expected in the next seven days per National Hurricane Center outlooks, pushing the season toward a record-late first hurricane or potentially none at all. While roughly 60% of seasonal activity historically occurs after the September 10 climatological peak, persistent wind shear and below-normal NOAA forecasts limit near-term intensification and U.S. landfall potential through November 30.
This market resolves based on whether a hurricane will make landfall in the state specified in the title between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A market resolves to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in that state within the timeframe, as described in official National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/); for Hawaii, NOAA Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) advisories also apply. Otherwise, that market resolves to "No".
A hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL) and the NHC reports maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher (Category 1 or greater) at the time of landfall. The state of landfall is determined by the surface center's location when it crosses the coastline. If a single hurricane makes separate landfalls in more than one listed state, each such state resolves to "Yes".
Hurricane season runs from June 1, 2026 - November 30, 2026.
Each market resolves based on the initial NHC (or CPHC) advisory reporting a qualifying landfall in the relevant state, regardless of any later retraction or reanalysis. Each market may only resolve to "No" after November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, if an extension period applies, after December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
If an active tropical cyclone at hurricane strength is over water per official NHC or CPHC advisories as of 11:59 PM ET on November 30, 2026, the relevant market(s) will operate under an extension period of 7 days, and the resolution date will move to December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; a qualifying landfall by that hurricane during the extension period will count toward resolution.
If a qualifying landfall occurs within a market's timeframe (including any extension period) but has not yet been confirmed by an NHC or CPHC advisory by the resolution date, that market will remain open until such an advisory is issued.
A hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL) and the NHC reports maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher (Category 1 or greater) at the time of landfall. The state of landfall is determined by the surface center's location when it crosses the coastline. If a single hurricane makes separate landfalls in more than one listed state, each such state resolves to "Yes".
Hurricane season runs from June 1, 2026 - November 30, 2026.
Each market resolves based on the initial NHC (or CPHC) advisory reporting a qualifying landfall in the relevant state, regardless of any later retraction or reanalysis. Each market may only resolve to "No" after November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, if an extension period applies, after December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
If an active tropical cyclone at hurricane strength is over water per official NHC or CPHC advisories as of 11:59 PM ET on November 30, 2026, the relevant market(s) will operate under an extension period of 7 days, and the resolution date will move to December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; a qualifying landfall by that hurricane during the extension period will count toward resolution.
If a qualifying landfall occurs within a market's timeframe (including any extension period) but has not yet been confirmed by an NHC or CPHC advisory by the resolution date, that market will remain open until such an advisory is issued.
Thị trường mở: Aug 18, 2026, 4:30 PM ET
Khối lượng
$16,997Ngày kết thúc
Dec 8, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 18, 2026, 4:30 PM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Người giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market resolves based on whether a hurricane will make landfall in the state specified in the title between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A market resolves to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in that state within the timeframe, as described in official National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/); for Hawaii, NOAA Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) advisories also apply. Otherwise, that market resolves to "No".
A hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL) and the NHC reports maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher (Category 1 or greater) at the time of landfall. The state of landfall is determined by the surface center's location when it crosses the coastline. If a single hurricane makes separate landfalls in more than one listed state, each such state resolves to "Yes".
Hurricane season runs from June 1, 2026 - November 30, 2026.
Each market resolves based on the initial NHC (or CPHC) advisory reporting a qualifying landfall in the relevant state, regardless of any later retraction or reanalysis. Each market may only resolve to "No" after November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, if an extension period applies, after December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
If an active tropical cyclone at hurricane strength is over water per official NHC or CPHC advisories as of 11:59 PM ET on November 30, 2026, the relevant market(s) will operate under an extension period of 7 days, and the resolution date will move to December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; a qualifying landfall by that hurricane during the extension period will count toward resolution.
If a qualifying landfall occurs within a market's timeframe (including any extension period) but has not yet been confirmed by an NHC or CPHC advisory by the resolution date, that market will remain open until such an advisory is issued.Strong El Niño conditions continue to suppress Atlantic tropical cyclone development through elevated vertical wind shear, resulting in the quietest start to the season in the satellite era as of September 11, 2026. The basin has produced only five named storms—Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, and Edouard—all of which remained below hurricane intensity on the Saffir-Simpson scale, with accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) at roughly 7% of the typical mid-September value. No tropical development is expected in the next seven days per National Hurricane Center outlooks, pushing the season toward a record-late first hurricane or potentially none at all. While roughly 60% of seasonal activity historically occurs after the September 10 climatological peak, persistent wind shear and below-normal NOAA forecasts limit near-term intensification and U.S. landfall potential through November 30.
This market resolves based on whether a hurricane will make landfall in the state specified in the title between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A market resolves to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in that state within the timeframe, as described in official National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/); for Hawaii, NOAA Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) advisories also apply. Otherwise, that market resolves to "No".
A hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL) and the NHC reports maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher (Category 1 or greater) at the time of landfall. The state of landfall is determined by the surface center's location when it crosses the coastline. If a single hurricane makes separate landfalls in more than one listed state, each such state resolves to "Yes".
Hurricane season runs from June 1, 2026 - November 30, 2026.
Each market resolves based on the initial NHC (or CPHC) advisory reporting a qualifying landfall in the relevant state, regardless of any later retraction or reanalysis. Each market may only resolve to "No" after November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, if an extension period applies, after December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
If an active tropical cyclone at hurricane strength is over water per official NHC or CPHC advisories as of 11:59 PM ET on November 30, 2026, the relevant market(s) will operate under an extension period of 7 days, and the resolution date will move to December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; a qualifying landfall by that hurricane during the extension period will count toward resolution.
If a qualifying landfall occurs within a market's timeframe (including any extension period) but has not yet been confirmed by an NHC or CPHC advisory by the resolution date, that market will remain open until such an advisory is issued.
A hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL) and the NHC reports maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher (Category 1 or greater) at the time of landfall. The state of landfall is determined by the surface center's location when it crosses the coastline. If a single hurricane makes separate landfalls in more than one listed state, each such state resolves to "Yes".
Hurricane season runs from June 1, 2026 - November 30, 2026.
Each market resolves based on the initial NHC (or CPHC) advisory reporting a qualifying landfall in the relevant state, regardless of any later retraction or reanalysis. Each market may only resolve to "No" after November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, if an extension period applies, after December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
If an active tropical cyclone at hurricane strength is over water per official NHC or CPHC advisories as of 11:59 PM ET on November 30, 2026, the relevant market(s) will operate under an extension period of 7 days, and the resolution date will move to December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; a qualifying landfall by that hurricane during the extension period will count toward resolution.
If a qualifying landfall occurs within a market's timeframe (including any extension period) but has not yet been confirmed by an NHC or CPHC advisory by the resolution date, that market will remain open until such an advisory is issued.
Khối lượng
$16,997Ngày kết thúc
Dec 8, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 18, 2026, 4:30 PM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Người giải quyết
0x65070BE91...Strong El Niño conditions continue to suppress Atlantic tropical cyclone development through elevated vertical wind shear, resulting in the quietest start to the season in the satellite era as of September 11, 2026. The basin has produced only five named storms—Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, and Edouard—all of which remained below hurricane intensity on the Saffir-Simpson scale, with accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) at roughly 7% of the typical mid-September value. No tropical development is expected in the next seven days per National Hurricane Center outlooks, pushing the season toward a record-late first hurricane or potentially none at all. While roughly 60% of seasonal activity historically occurs after the September 10 climatological peak, persistent wind shear and below-normal NOAA forecasts limit near-term intensification and U.S. landfall potential through November 30.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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