Google's prolonged delay of the Gemini 3.5 Pro frontier model—originally slated for June after I/O 2026 teases—continues to shape trader views, with the company instead shipping iterative Gemini 3.x Flash variants, including the 3.8 Flash release on September 2. Persistent testing, internal refinements for agentic capabilities, and competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic releases have pushed timelines later, as evidenced by recent model documentation showing no 3.5 Pro availability. This uncertainty, paired with hints of work on Gemini 4 pre-training, supports the closely matched market-implied odds favoring mid-to-late October windows or no release by November 1. Key upcoming catalysts include any partner testing updates or DeepMind announcements that could clarify readiness.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtNo release by November 1 24%
October 12–October 18 23%
October 5–October 11 15.3%
September 28–October 4 13.8%
$46,380 KL.
$46,380 KL.
Sep 13, 2026
September 7–September 13
3%
September 14–September 20
4%
September 21–September 27
6%
September 28–October 4
14%
October 5–October 11
15%
October 12–October 18
23%
October 19–October 25
10%
October 26–November 1
12%
No release by November 1
24%
No release by November 1 24%
October 12–October 18 23%
October 5–October 11 15.3%
September 28–October 4 13.8%
$46,380 KL.
$46,380 KL.
Sep 13, 2026
September 7–September 13
$1,381 KL.
3%
September 14–September 20
$412 KL.
4%
September 21–September 27
$549 KL.
6%
September 28–October 4
$619 KL.
14%
October 5–October 11
$413 KL.
15%
October 12–October 18
$2,507 KL.
23%
October 19–October 25
$438 KL.
10%
October 26–November 1
$558 KL.
12%
No release by November 1
$38,210 KL.
24%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google's prolonged delay of the Gemini 3.5 Pro frontier model—originally slated for June after I/O 2026 teases—continues to shape trader views, with the company instead shipping iterative Gemini 3.x Flash variants, including the 3.8 Flash release on September 2. Persistent testing, internal refinements for agentic capabilities, and competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic releases have pushed timelines later, as evidenced by recent model documentation showing no 3.5 Pro availability. This uncertainty, paired with hints of work on Gemini 4 pre-training, supports the closely matched market-implied odds favoring mid-to-late October windows or no release by November 1. Key upcoming catalysts include any partner testing updates or DeepMind announcements that could clarify readiness.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Aug 17, 2026, 7:32 PM ET
Khối lượng
$46,380Ngày kết thúc
Nov 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 17, 2026, 7:32 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google's prolonged delay of the Gemini 3.5 Pro frontier model—originally slated for June after I/O 2026 teases—continues to shape trader views, with the company instead shipping iterative Gemini 3.x Flash variants, including the 3.8 Flash release on September 2. Persistent testing, internal refinements for agentic capabilities, and competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic releases have pushed timelines later, as evidenced by recent model documentation showing no 3.5 Pro availability. This uncertainty, paired with hints of work on Gemini 4 pre-training, supports the closely matched market-implied odds favoring mid-to-late October windows or no release by November 1. Key upcoming catalysts include any partner testing updates or DeepMind announcements that could clarify readiness.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$46,380Ngày kết thúc
Nov 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 17, 2026, 7:32 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Google's prolonged delay of the Gemini 3.5 Pro frontier model—originally slated for June after I/O 2026 teases—continues to shape trader views, with the company instead shipping iterative Gemini 3.x Flash variants, including the 3.8 Flash release on September 2. Persistent testing, internal refinements for agentic capabilities, and competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic releases have pushed timelines later, as evidenced by recent model documentation showing no 3.5 Pro availability. This uncertainty, paired with hints of work on Gemini 4 pre-training, supports the closely matched market-implied odds favoring mid-to-late October windows or no release by November 1. Key upcoming catalysts include any partner testing updates or DeepMind announcements that could clarify readiness.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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