Hurricane Nolo reached a confirmed peak intensity of 155 mph sustained winds in late September 2026 under favorable conditions of warm sea surface temperatures and low vertical wind shear southwest of Hawaii, placing it at the upper end of Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Official analyses from the National Hurricane Center and Joint Typhoon Warning Center documented this maximum before increasing easterly shear and dry mid-level air triggered rapid weakening, with the system dissipating as a tropical depression by mid-October. This observational record underpins the strong market consensus on Category 4. A realistic challenge would require post-season reanalysis revising peak winds above the 157 mph Category 5 threshold, though current data show no such adjustment is likely.