Incumbent Republican John McGuire holds a structural edge in Virginia’s 5th congressional district, a rural Southside seat that Trump carried by double digits in 2024 and that forecasters rate Solid or Likely Republican. The district’s partisan balance, preserved after courts blocked Democratic redistricting efforts, underpins trader expectations for a GOP hold in the November 2026 general election. Multiple Democrats, including former Representative Tom Perriello, have entered the August primary, yet the seat’s consistent Republican tilt and McGuire’s recent victory limit their path. Recent candidate filings through late May have not altered these fundamentals, leaving the implied probability of a Republican winner near 73 percent as the dominant market signal.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtVA-05 House Election Winner
VA-05 House Election Winner
$53,106 KL.
$53,106 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
74%
Democratic Party
28%
$53,106 KL.
$53,106 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$24,594 KL.
74%
Democratic Party
$28,513 KL.
28%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican John McGuire holds a structural edge in Virginia’s 5th congressional district, a rural Southside seat that Trump carried by double digits in 2024 and that forecasters rate Solid or Likely Republican. The district’s partisan balance, preserved after courts blocked Democratic redistricting efforts, underpins trader expectations for a GOP hold in the November 2026 general election. Multiple Democrats, including former Representative Tom Perriello, have entered the August primary, yet the seat’s consistent Republican tilt and McGuire’s recent victory limit their path. Recent candidate filings through late May have not altered these fundamentals, leaving the implied probability of a Republican winner near 73 percent as the dominant market signal.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Thị trường mở: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Khối lượng
$53,106Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican John McGuire holds a structural edge in Virginia’s 5th congressional district, a rural Southside seat that Trump carried by double digits in 2024 and that forecasters rate Solid or Likely Republican. The district’s partisan balance, preserved after courts blocked Democratic redistricting efforts, underpins trader expectations for a GOP hold in the November 2026 general election. Multiple Democrats, including former Representative Tom Perriello, have entered the August primary, yet the seat’s consistent Republican tilt and McGuire’s recent victory limit their path. Recent candidate filings through late May have not altered these fundamentals, leaving the implied probability of a Republican winner near 73 percent as the dominant market signal.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Khối lượng
$53,106Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican John McGuire holds a structural edge in Virginia’s 5th congressional district, a rural Southside seat that Trump carried by double digits in 2024 and that forecasters rate Solid or Likely Republican. The district’s partisan balance, preserved after courts blocked Democratic redistricting efforts, underpins trader expectations for a GOP hold in the November 2026 general election. Multiple Democrats, including former Representative Tom Perriello, have entered the August primary, yet the seat’s consistent Republican tilt and McGuire’s recent victory limit their path. Recent candidate filings through late May have not altered these fundamentals, leaving the implied probability of a Republican winner near 73 percent as the dominant market signal.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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