Former U.S. Rep. Ben McAdams leads trader consensus at 74.5% implied probability in the UT-01 Democratic primary on June 23, driven by his early polling edge (36% in March Data for Progress survey), fundraising dominance, and endorsement from state Sen. Kathleen Riebe, who dropped out in April citing inability to compete financially. Newcomer Liban Mohamed's 19.9% reflects momentum from his narrow ranked-choice upset over McAdams at the April 25 state convention, securing delegate support in the new blue-leaning district but falling short of the 60% threshold for automatic nomination. State Sen. Nate Blouin's 19.5% stems from progressive appeal amid undecided voters (25% in polls), though conservative dark money ads target him; no new polls have emerged in the past two weeks to shift dynamics significantly.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtUT-01 Democratic Primary Winner
UT-01 Democratic Primary Winner
Ben McAdams 75%
Nate Blouin 20%
Liban Mohamed 5.1%
Erin Mendenhall <1%
$29,129 KL.
$29,129 KL.
Ben McAdams
75%
Nate Blouin
20%
Liban Mohamed
17%
Erin Mendenhall
<1%
Luz Escamilla
<1%
Brian King
<1%
Caroline Gleich
<1%
Kathleen Riebe
<1%
Kael Weston
<1%
Jenny Wilson
<1%
Michael Farrell
<1%
Ben McAdams 75%
Nate Blouin 20%
Liban Mohamed 5.1%
Erin Mendenhall <1%
$29,129 KL.
$29,129 KL.
Ben McAdams
75%
Nate Blouin
20%
Liban Mohamed
17%
Erin Mendenhall
<1%
Luz Escamilla
<1%
Brian King
<1%
Caroline Gleich
<1%
Kathleen Riebe
<1%
Kael Weston
<1%
Jenny Wilson
<1%
Michael Farrell
<1%
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Thị trường mở: Nov 25, 2025, 4:43 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Former U.S. Rep. Ben McAdams leads trader consensus at 74.5% implied probability in the UT-01 Democratic primary on June 23, driven by his early polling edge (36% in March Data for Progress survey), fundraising dominance, and endorsement from state Sen. Kathleen Riebe, who dropped out in April citing inability to compete financially. Newcomer Liban Mohamed's 19.9% reflects momentum from his narrow ranked-choice upset over McAdams at the April 25 state convention, securing delegate support in the new blue-leaning district but falling short of the 60% threshold for automatic nomination. State Sen. Nate Blouin's 19.5% stems from progressive appeal amid undecided voters (25% in polls), though conservative dark money ads target him; no new polls have emerged in the past two weeks to shift dynamics significantly.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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