Ongoing US sanctions, naval blockade of Iranian oil exports, and regional conflict since February have sharply reduced hard-currency inflows, fueling inflation above 70 percent and pushing the free-market rial to repeated record lows near 2.7 million per dollar in early October. Central bank dollar sales of up to $2 billion have provided temporary support, while indirect talks on reopening the Strait of Hormuz introduce scope for partial relief. These opposing pressures—continued export constraints versus possible diplomatic easing—underpin the tight trader consensus around the 2.5–3.5 million range for December, with outcomes hinging on whether oil revenue rebounds or sanctions intensify further in the coming months.