Traders see little chance of a US-China agreement to pace the AI frontier in 2026 because recent summit outcomes and official statements emphasize continued competition rather than mutual restraint. Following the late-September Trump-Xi meeting, the two sides established only a limited "super intelligence" dialogue on risks and benefits plus an incident communication channel, with no commitments to slow model development, cap compute, or coordinate deployment timelines. US leadership in frontier large language models, advanced chips, and investment remains clear, while export controls and mutual suspicion persist. Trump has repeatedly stated the US will not apply brakes to maintain its lead. A breakthrough would require major new policy shifts or high-impact incidents that force both governments to prioritize verifiable limits over national advantage.