Traders assign a 96.5% probability against U.S. military draft authorization in 2026 because Congress has taken no steps to amend the Military Selective Service Act and reinstate inductions, which last occurred in 1973. The all-volunteer force continues to meet personnel needs without reported shortfalls that would trigger emergency conscription authority. Recent passage of automatic Selective Service registration via the fiscal 2026 NDAA updates database processes but explicitly does not activate or authorize a draft. Bipartisan repeal efforts for the entire system further signal limited appetite for conscription. A major escalation in ongoing conflicts, such as with Iran, that rapidly exceeds volunteer recruitment capacity could still prompt legislative consideration before year-end.