Multiple FDIC-supervised closures have already occurred in 2026, including the fifth failure of Tioga-Franklin Savings Bank on August 21, following earlier resolutions of Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust, Community Bank and Trust-West Georgia, Kentland Federal Savings and Loan, and Small Business Bank. This steady pace of small-community-bank insolvencies, driven by asset-quality pressures in commercial real estate and localized credit losses, has pushed the market-implied probability of at least one failure by year-end to 100 percent. With resolution already confirmed multiple times this year, the outcome hinges on no reversal of the existing tally rather than future events, though an unexpected stabilization of distressed portfolios or regulatory forbearance could theoretically alter the count if prior closures were reclassified.