Incumbent Republican Pat Fallon secured his party's nomination in the March 2026 primary for Texas's 4th congressional district, facing Democratic nominee Jason Pearce in the November 3 general election. The district's strong Republican lean, reinforced by 2025 redistricting that added Republican-leaning areas in eastern Texas and parts of the Dallas suburbs, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican outcome. Fallon previously won reelection with over 68 percent of the vote in 2024, when the seat supported Republican presidential and Senate candidates by double-digit margins. With no major recent developments or competitive polling shifts in the past month, the implied probability reflects the district's structural advantages for the incumbent party, including established voter patterns and limited Democratic infrastructure in this solidly Republican territory.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtTX-04 House Election Winner
TX-04 House Election Winner
MỚI
MỚI
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
86%
Democratic Party
15%
MỚI
MỚI
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$1,664 KL.
86%
Democratic Party
$1,842 KL.
15%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Pat Fallon secured his party's nomination in the March 2026 primary for Texas's 4th congressional district, facing Democratic nominee Jason Pearce in the November 3 general election. The district's strong Republican lean, reinforced by 2025 redistricting that added Republican-leaning areas in eastern Texas and parts of the Dallas suburbs, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican outcome. Fallon previously won reelection with over 68 percent of the vote in 2024, when the seat supported Republican presidential and Senate candidates by double-digit margins. With no major recent developments or competitive polling shifts in the past month, the implied probability reflects the district's structural advantages for the incumbent party, including established voter patterns and limited Democratic infrastructure in this solidly Republican territory.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Thị trường mở: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Khối lượng
$3,506Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Pat Fallon secured his party's nomination in the March 2026 primary for Texas's 4th congressional district, facing Democratic nominee Jason Pearce in the November 3 general election. The district's strong Republican lean, reinforced by 2025 redistricting that added Republican-leaning areas in eastern Texas and parts of the Dallas suburbs, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican outcome. Fallon previously won reelection with over 68 percent of the vote in 2024, when the seat supported Republican presidential and Senate candidates by double-digit margins. With no major recent developments or competitive polling shifts in the past month, the implied probability reflects the district's structural advantages for the incumbent party, including established voter patterns and limited Democratic infrastructure in this solidly Republican territory.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Khối lượng
$3,506Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Pat Fallon secured his party's nomination in the March 2026 primary for Texas's 4th congressional district, facing Democratic nominee Jason Pearce in the November 3 general election. The district's strong Republican lean, reinforced by 2025 redistricting that added Republican-leaning areas in eastern Texas and parts of the Dallas suburbs, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican outcome. Fallon previously won reelection with over 68 percent of the vote in 2024, when the seat supported Republican presidential and Senate candidates by double-digit margins. With no major recent developments or competitive polling shifts in the past month, the implied probability reflects the district's structural advantages for the incumbent party, including established voter patterns and limited Democratic infrastructure in this solidly Republican territory.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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