Presidential authority over international geographic names faces significant structural limits, as renaming the Strait of Hormuz would require coordination with Oman, Iran, and bodies such as the International Hydrographic Organization rather than unilateral executive action. Traders price the "No" outcome at 95.5 percent because no comparable U.S. president has altered foreign straits or waterways through decree, and historical naming conventions for such features rest with multilateral processes and treaties. While a symbolic U.S. Board on Geographic Names reference or congressional resolution remains theoretically possible before December 31, these steps would not bind international maps or shipping documentation. Late diplomatic developments or formal agreements could still shift odds, though none appear imminent.