Justin Pearson holds a commanding lead in the August 6 Democratic primary for Tennessee’s 9th Congressional District, with traders assigning him a 76% probability. This positioning stems primarily from longtime incumbent Steve Cohen’s mid-May withdrawal after Republican-led redistricting split the Memphis-centered seat into three districts, removing Cohen from the ballot and leaving an open race. Pearson, a state representative with established name recognition and progressive backing, benefits from a fragmented field that also includes DeVante Hill and London Lamar. The August primary timeline and absence of major late developments have kept Pearson’s frontrunner status stable in the trader consensus reflected by current pricing.