Justin Pearson leads the TN-09 Democratic primary market at 81.5% following longtime incumbent Steve Cohen’s withdrawal after May 2026 redistricting altered district lines and reduced its Democratic tilt. Pearson’s established profile as a state representative, visibility during redistricting protests, recent endorsements from a majority of House Democratic colleagues, and fundraising edge have consolidated trader consensus around his path to the August 6 nomination. DeVante Hill remains at 7.8% with narrower support despite ballot access restoration, while Cohen holds 4.3% despite his exit. Additional candidates including London Lamar and M. LaTroy A-Williams have not shifted the implied probabilities in recent weeks.