Recent early-September 2026 releases have tightened the race for third among frontier labs, with Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash and Meta’s Muse Spark 1.3 landing competitive scores on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and agentic benchmarks shortly after Anthropic’s Fable 5.1 and OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra. Traders appear to view Google’s multimodal integrations and Meta’s open-weight distribution as durable differentiators that keep both ahead of OpenAI’s latest specialist model and Chinese contenders such as Alibaba’s Qwen3.8 Max. The near-even odds between Google and Meta reflect ongoing benchmark volatility and the absence of a decisive October catalyst that would separate their large language model performance, ecosystem reach, or developer adoption.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtGoogle 34%
Meta 32%
OpenAI 12.2%
Alibaba 12%
$29,737 KL.
$29,737 KL.
Oct 31, 2026
34%
Meta
32%
OpenAI
12%
Alibaba
12%
Tencent
7%
Moonshot
4%
Anthropic
3%
Z.ai
2%
Mistral
2%
MiniMax
2%
SpaceXAI
9%
ByteDance
1%
Xiaomi
1%
Baidu
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Nvidia
1%
Amazon
1%
Thinky
1%
Meituan
1%
Microsoft
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Google 34%
Meta 32%
OpenAI 12.2%
Alibaba 12%
$29,737 KL.
$29,737 KL.
Oct 31, 2026
$11,610 KL.
34%
Meta
$2,309 KL.
32%
OpenAI
$4,126 KL.
12%
Alibaba
$4,173 KL.
12%
Tencent
$545 KL.
7%
Moonshot
$547 KL.
4%
Anthropic
$350 KL.
3%
Z.ai
$398 KL.
2%
Mistral
$545 KL.
2%
MiniMax
$582 KL.
2%
SpaceXAI
$494 KL.
9%
ByteDance
$507 KL.
1%
Xiaomi
$526 KL.
1%
Baidu
$372 KL.
1%
DeepSeek
$369 KL.
1%
Nvidia
$392 KL.
1%
Amazon
$355 KL.
1%
Thinky
$348 KL.
1%
Meituan
$412 KL.
1%
Microsoft
$393 KL.
<1%
StepFun
$386 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent early-September 2026 releases have tightened the race for third among frontier labs, with Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash and Meta’s Muse Spark 1.3 landing competitive scores on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and agentic benchmarks shortly after Anthropic’s Fable 5.1 and OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra. Traders appear to view Google’s multimodal integrations and Meta’s open-weight distribution as durable differentiators that keep both ahead of OpenAI’s latest specialist model and Chinese contenders such as Alibaba’s Qwen3.8 Max. The near-even odds between Google and Meta reflect ongoing benchmark volatility and the absence of a decisive October catalyst that would separate their large language model performance, ecosystem reach, or developer adoption.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Thị trường mở: Aug 12, 2026, 8:02 PM ET
Khối lượng
$29,737Ngày kết thúc
Nov 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 12, 2026, 8:02 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent early-September 2026 releases have tightened the race for third among frontier labs, with Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash and Meta’s Muse Spark 1.3 landing competitive scores on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and agentic benchmarks shortly after Anthropic’s Fable 5.1 and OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra. Traders appear to view Google’s multimodal integrations and Meta’s open-weight distribution as durable differentiators that keep both ahead of OpenAI’s latest specialist model and Chinese contenders such as Alibaba’s Qwen3.8 Max. The near-even odds between Google and Meta reflect ongoing benchmark volatility and the absence of a decisive October catalyst that would separate their large language model performance, ecosystem reach, or developer adoption.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Khối lượng
$29,737Ngày kết thúc
Nov 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 12, 2026, 8:02 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Recent early-September 2026 releases have tightened the race for third among frontier labs, with Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash and Meta’s Muse Spark 1.3 landing competitive scores on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and agentic benchmarks shortly after Anthropic’s Fable 5.1 and OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra. Traders appear to view Google’s multimodal integrations and Meta’s open-weight distribution as durable differentiators that keep both ahead of OpenAI’s latest specialist model and Chinese contenders such as Alibaba’s Qwen3.8 Max. The near-even odds between Google and Meta reflect ongoing benchmark volatility and the absence of a decisive October catalyst that would separate their large language model performance, ecosystem reach, or developer adoption.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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