SpaceX has demonstrated repeated Super Heavy booster catches via the Mechazilla tower arms and cleared at least one for potential reflight, yet the Starship upper stage has achieved only controlled ocean splashdowns, heat-shield survival, and in-space Raptor relights through Flight 13 in July 2026. No tower catch or rapid upper-stage reuse has occurred, and Flight 14 scheduled for September 22 targets orbital Starlink V3 deployment without confirmed plans for immediate ship recovery. With FAA licensing constraining the number of remaining 2026 attempts and the full two-stage reusability threshold requiring both components to demonstrate turnaround capability, trader consensus favors the "No" outcome at 63% implied probability.