**A regular Landtag election was held in Saxony-Anhalt on 6 September 2026, with the AfD securing a plurality at 43.8% but falling three seats short of an absolute majority in the 83-seat parliament.** The new assembly convened on 6 October 2026 and elected an AfD member as Landtag president with cross-party support. Government formation remains underway amid fragmented results (CDU at 17.2%, followed by SPD, Greens, Left, and BSW), with no functioning coalition yet and no reported collapse of the prior CDU-SPD-FDP arrangement that would trigger early dissolution. Under German state rules, snap elections require a parliamentary majority or specific constitutional triggers such as failure to elect a minister-president, none of which have materialized in the weeks since the vote. Traders therefore assign the “No” outcome a 72.5% implied probability, reflecting the absence of any immediate catalyst for another ballot before year-end.