Robert F. Kennedy Jr. continues to serve as HHS Secretary with strong presidential backing for his Make America Healthy Again agenda, including recent leadership reorganizations at the department, vaccine policy shifts, and public testimony before Congress in early October 2026. Traders assign a 96.5% implied probability he remains in the role through October 31 because no resignation or removal signals have emerged from the White House or Senate Republicans, despite Democratic calls for his departure and staff criticism of agency changes. His alignment with administration priorities ahead of the midterms reinforces this positioning. Late developments such as a sudden health issue, major scandal, or explicit presidential directive could still alter the outcome before the deadline.