Pakistan's commitments under the August 2026 Mecca Joint Defence Agreement with Saudi Arabia and Turkey, activated amid Houthi missile and drone strikes on Saudi territory in September, form the main driver of trader positioning. Defence Minister Khawaja Asif has confirmed Pakistani forces provide reconnaissance and support roles inside Saudi Arabia while stating combat operations remain Saudi-led and troops will not enter Yemen. Additional reports note weapons shipments and advisors aiding pro-Saudi Yemeni forces, yet Islamabad has repeatedly emphasized a defensive posture limited to protecting the kingdom and holy sites. Historical parliamentary resistance to direct Yemen involvement and domestic constraints reinforce the low implied probability of qualifying Pakistani-initiated strikes on Yemeni territory by year-end. Escalation in Red Sea operations or shifts in the pact's implementation could alter assessments.