Traders view Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu as the most likely among listed leaders to leave office before 2027, driven by ongoing coalition fragility, parliamentary maneuvering, and security developments tied to regional conflicts. The "none before 2027" outcome sits second, underscoring broad uncertainty over rapid departures. Lower probabilities for figures such as Cuba's Díaz-Canel, Germany's Merz, or France's Lecornu reflect longer constitutional terms, stable legislative majorities, or limited near-term electoral or legal triggers. Recent parliamentary votes, cabinet shifts, and diplomatic statements have shaped these implied probabilities without producing decisive turnover signals.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtNext leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)
Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)
Netanyahu - Israel PM 43%
None before 2027 33%
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 7.5%
Lecornu - France PM 2.8%
$188,795 KL.
$188,795 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
Netanyahu - Israel PM
43%
None before 2027
33%
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President
8%
Lecornu - France PM
3%
Merz - German Chancellor
2%
Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President
2%
Sánchez - Spanish PM
2%
Macron - France President
2%
Putin - Russia President
1%
Abbas - President of Palestine
1%
Zelenskyy - Ukraine President
1%
Lula da Silva - Brazil President
1%
Xi - General Secretary of the CCP
1%
Trump - USA President
1%
Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea
1%
Takaichi - Japan PM
1%
Erdoğan - Türkiye President
<1%
Sheinbaum - Mexico President
<1%
Newsom - California Governor
<1%
Milei - Argentina President
<1%
al-Sharaa - Syria President
<1%
Albanese - Australia PM
<1%
Netanyahu - Israel PM 43%
None before 2027 33%
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 7.5%
Lecornu - France PM 2.8%
$188,795 KL.
$188,795 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
Netanyahu - Israel PM
$12,471 KL.
43%
None before 2027
$72,988 KL.
33%
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President
$6,962 KL.
8%
Lecornu - France PM
$5,799 KL.
3%
Merz - German Chancellor
$4,272 KL.
2%
Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President
$8,455 KL.
2%
Sánchez - Spanish PM
$4,630 KL.
2%
Macron - France President
$6,678 KL.
2%
Putin - Russia President
$5,477 KL.
1%
Abbas - President of Palestine
$4,577 KL.
1%
Zelenskyy - Ukraine President
$5,260 KL.
1%
Lula da Silva - Brazil President
$5,201 KL.
1%
Xi - General Secretary of the CCP
$6,329 KL.
1%
Trump - USA President
$3,983 KL.
1%
Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea
$3,950 KL.
1%
Takaichi - Japan PM
$4,232 KL.
1%
Erdoğan - Türkiye President
$5,061 KL.
<1%
Sheinbaum - Mexico President
$5,306 KL.
<1%
Newsom - California Governor
$3,575 KL.
<1%
Milei - Argentina President
$3,772 KL.
<1%
al-Sharaa - Syria President
$4,953 KL.
<1%
Albanese - Australia PM
$4,864 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.
An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.
Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.
If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders view Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu as the most likely among listed leaders to leave office before 2027, driven by ongoing coalition fragility, parliamentary maneuvering, and security developments tied to regional conflicts. The "none before 2027" outcome sits second, underscoring broad uncertainty over rapid departures. Lower probabilities for figures such as Cuba's Díaz-Canel, Germany's Merz, or France's Lecornu reflect longer constitutional terms, stable legislative majorities, or limited near-term electoral or legal triggers. Recent parliamentary votes, cabinet shifts, and diplomatic statements have shaped these implied probabilities without producing decisive turnover signals.
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.
An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.
Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.
If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.
Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.
If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Jun 30, 2026, 10:16 PM ET
Khối lượng
$188,795Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 30, 2026, 10:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.
An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.
Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.
If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders view Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu as the most likely among listed leaders to leave office before 2027, driven by ongoing coalition fragility, parliamentary maneuvering, and security developments tied to regional conflicts. The "none before 2027" outcome sits second, underscoring broad uncertainty over rapid departures. Lower probabilities for figures such as Cuba's Díaz-Canel, Germany's Merz, or France's Lecornu reflect longer constitutional terms, stable legislative majorities, or limited near-term electoral or legal triggers. Recent parliamentary votes, cabinet shifts, and diplomatic statements have shaped these implied probabilities without producing decisive turnover signals.
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.
An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.
Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.
If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.
Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.
If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$188,795Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 30, 2026, 10:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders view Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu as the most likely among listed leaders to leave office before 2027, driven by ongoing coalition fragility, parliamentary maneuvering, and security developments tied to regional conflicts. The "none before 2027" outcome sits second, underscoring broad uncertainty over rapid departures. Lower probabilities for figures such as Cuba's Díaz-Canel, Germany's Merz, or France's Lecornu reflect longer constitutional terms, stable legislative majorities, or limited near-term electoral or legal triggers. Recent parliamentary votes, cabinet shifts, and diplomatic statements have shaped these implied probabilities without producing decisive turnover signals.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp