Persistent delays in Google’s Gemini 3.5 Pro frontier model continue to anchor trader sentiment, with the project still in partner testing months after its May 2026 I/O announcement and subsequent June–August target slips. Google has instead shipped incremental Gemini 3.x Flash variants, including the 3.8 Flash release on September 2, while leadership statements at the July earnings call emphasized an ambitious new pre-training run for Gemini 4. This pattern of extended refinement and resource reallocation leaves little room for a Pro launch before month-end, supporting the market’s 82.5% implied probability of no release by September 30. Upcoming earnings or developer events could provide fresh signals, but current verified activity points to further slippage.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtNo release by September 30 83%
September 22 4.1%
September 30 4.0%
September 24 3.7%
$90,946 KL.
$90,946 KL.
Sep 12, 2026
September 12
1%
September 13
1%
September 14
<1%
September 15
2%
September 16
2%
September 17
2%
September 18
<1%
September 19
1%
September 20
1%
September 21
2%
September 22
4%
September 23
3%
September 24
4%
September 25
1%
September 26
1%
September 27
1%
September 28
3%
September 29
2%
September 30
4%
No release by September 30
83%
No release by September 30 83%
September 22 4.1%
September 30 4.0%
September 24 3.7%
$90,946 KL.
$90,946 KL.
Sep 12, 2026
September 12
$307 KL.
1%
September 13
$336 KL.
1%
September 14
$409 KL.
<1%
September 15
$547 KL.
2%
September 16
$543 KL.
2%
September 17
$547 KL.
2%
September 18
$310 KL.
<1%
September 19
$307 KL.
1%
September 20
$307 KL.
1%
September 21
$537 KL.
2%
September 22
$584 KL.
4%
September 23
$464 KL.
3%
September 24
$594 KL.
4%
September 25
$303 KL.
1%
September 26
$305 KL.
1%
September 27
$307 KL.
1%
September 28
$485 KL.
3%
September 29
$375 KL.
2%
September 30
$823 KL.
4%
No release by September 30
$76,453 KL.
83%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Persistent delays in Google’s Gemini 3.5 Pro frontier model continue to anchor trader sentiment, with the project still in partner testing months after its May 2026 I/O announcement and subsequent June–August target slips. Google has instead shipped incremental Gemini 3.x Flash variants, including the 3.8 Flash release on September 2, while leadership statements at the July earnings call emphasized an ambitious new pre-training run for Gemini 4. This pattern of extended refinement and resource reallocation leaves little room for a Pro launch before month-end, supporting the market’s 82.5% implied probability of no release by September 30. Upcoming earnings or developer events could provide fresh signals, but current verified activity points to further slippage.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Aug 17, 2026, 7:31 PM ET
Khối lượng
$90,946Ngày kết thúc
Oct 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 17, 2026, 7:31 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Persistent delays in Google’s Gemini 3.5 Pro frontier model continue to anchor trader sentiment, with the project still in partner testing months after its May 2026 I/O announcement and subsequent June–August target slips. Google has instead shipped incremental Gemini 3.x Flash variants, including the 3.8 Flash release on September 2, while leadership statements at the July earnings call emphasized an ambitious new pre-training run for Gemini 4. This pattern of extended refinement and resource reallocation leaves little room for a Pro launch before month-end, supporting the market’s 82.5% implied probability of no release by September 30. Upcoming earnings or developer events could provide fresh signals, but current verified activity points to further slippage.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$90,946Ngày kết thúc
Oct 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 17, 2026, 7:31 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Persistent delays in Google’s Gemini 3.5 Pro frontier model continue to anchor trader sentiment, with the project still in partner testing months after its May 2026 I/O announcement and subsequent June–August target slips. Google has instead shipped incremental Gemini 3.x Flash variants, including the 3.8 Flash release on September 2, while leadership statements at the July earnings call emphasized an ambitious new pre-training run for Gemini 4. This pattern of extended refinement and resource reallocation leaves little room for a Pro launch before month-end, supporting the market’s 82.5% implied probability of no release by September 30. Upcoming earnings or developer events could provide fresh signals, but current verified activity points to further slippage.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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