The upcoming 24 September House of Keys election keeps implied probabilities tightly clustered among independents, with incumbent Alfred Cannan at 39% as the only sitting chief minister seeking re-election. Non-partisan MHK selection requires broad cross-bench support for nomination in the new House, elevating ministers such as Chris Thomas at 22% and Jane Poole-Wilson at 17% as plausible alternatives depending on seat totals and coalition patterns. Lower shares for Rob Callister, Lawrie Hooper, and Alex Allinson reflect narrower paths to the required majority. Limited recent endorsements or polling shifts have compressed differentiation, with separation likely to emerge from final constituency results and the subsequent formal nomination process in Tynwald.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtAlfred Cannan 39%
Chris Thomas 22%
Jane Poole-Wilson 17%
Rob Callister 4.8%
$40,032 KL.
$40,032 KL.
Sep 24, 2026
Alfred Cannan
44%
Chris Thomas
22%
Jane Poole-Wilson
17%
Rob Callister
5%
Lawrie Hooper
5%
Alex Allinson
2%
Alfred Cannan 39%
Chris Thomas 22%
Jane Poole-Wilson 17%
Rob Callister 4.8%
$40,032 KL.
$40,032 KL.
Sep 24, 2026
Alfred Cannan
$19,872 KL.
44%
Chris Thomas
$7,023 KL.
22%
Jane Poole-Wilson
$5,036 KL.
17%
Rob Callister
$4,177 KL.
5%
Lawrie Hooper
$3,397 KL.
5%
Alex Allinson
$528 KL.
2%
Parliamentary elections to elect the House of Keys of the Isle of Man are scheduled to take place on September 24, 2026.
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Chief Minister of the Isle of Man following the 2026 Isle of Man parliamentary elections.
To count for resolution, the individual must be officially sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Chief Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Chief Minister takes office by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the Isle of Man; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The upcoming 24 September House of Keys election keeps implied probabilities tightly clustered among independents, with incumbent Alfred Cannan at 39% as the only sitting chief minister seeking re-election. Non-partisan MHK selection requires broad cross-bench support for nomination in the new House, elevating ministers such as Chris Thomas at 22% and Jane Poole-Wilson at 17% as plausible alternatives depending on seat totals and coalition patterns. Lower shares for Rob Callister, Lawrie Hooper, and Alex Allinson reflect narrower paths to the required majority. Limited recent endorsements or polling shifts have compressed differentiation, with separation likely to emerge from final constituency results and the subsequent formal nomination process in Tynwald.
Parliamentary elections to elect the House of Keys of the Isle of Man are scheduled to take place on September 24, 2026.
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Chief Minister of the Isle of Man following the 2026 Isle of Man parliamentary elections.
To count for resolution, the individual must be officially sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Chief Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Chief Minister takes office by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the Isle of Man; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Chief Minister of the Isle of Man following the 2026 Isle of Man parliamentary elections.
To count for resolution, the individual must be officially sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Chief Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Chief Minister takes office by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the Isle of Man; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Jul 28, 2026, 6:34 PM ET
Khối lượng
$40,032Ngày kết thúc
Sep 24, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 28, 2026, 6:34 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the House of Keys of the Isle of Man are scheduled to take place on September 24, 2026.
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Chief Minister of the Isle of Man following the 2026 Isle of Man parliamentary elections.
To count for resolution, the individual must be officially sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Chief Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Chief Minister takes office by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the Isle of Man; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The upcoming 24 September House of Keys election keeps implied probabilities tightly clustered among independents, with incumbent Alfred Cannan at 39% as the only sitting chief minister seeking re-election. Non-partisan MHK selection requires broad cross-bench support for nomination in the new House, elevating ministers such as Chris Thomas at 22% and Jane Poole-Wilson at 17% as plausible alternatives depending on seat totals and coalition patterns. Lower shares for Rob Callister, Lawrie Hooper, and Alex Allinson reflect narrower paths to the required majority. Limited recent endorsements or polling shifts have compressed differentiation, with separation likely to emerge from final constituency results and the subsequent formal nomination process in Tynwald.
Parliamentary elections to elect the House of Keys of the Isle of Man are scheduled to take place on September 24, 2026.
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Chief Minister of the Isle of Man following the 2026 Isle of Man parliamentary elections.
To count for resolution, the individual must be officially sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Chief Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Chief Minister takes office by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the Isle of Man; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Chief Minister of the Isle of Man following the 2026 Isle of Man parliamentary elections.
To count for resolution, the individual must be officially sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Chief Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Chief Minister takes office by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the Isle of Man; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$40,032Ngày kết thúc
Sep 24, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 28, 2026, 6:34 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...The upcoming 24 September House of Keys election keeps implied probabilities tightly clustered among independents, with incumbent Alfred Cannan at 39% as the only sitting chief minister seeking re-election. Non-partisan MHK selection requires broad cross-bench support for nomination in the new House, elevating ministers such as Chris Thomas at 22% and Jane Poole-Wilson at 17% as plausible alternatives depending on seat totals and coalition patterns. Lower shares for Rob Callister, Lawrie Hooper, and Alex Allinson reflect narrower paths to the required majority. Limited recent endorsements or polling shifts have compressed differentiation, with separation likely to emerge from final constituency results and the subsequent formal nomination process in Tynwald.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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