Alibaba’s aggressive Qwen3.8 rollout in July–August 2026, including the July 19 preview and August 3 general availability of the 2.4-trillion-parameter Qwen3.8-Max (MoE with 95B active parameters, 1M context), followed by open weights and the August 26 Qwen3.8-Flash release, has shaped trader views on the next Plus-tier model at 3.8+. The series emphasizes coding, agentic workflows, and cost efficiency (Flash trained at roughly one-ninth the cost of prior Plus models), with architecture previews signaling Qwen4. No dedicated Qwen3.8-Plus has shipped, unlike the June 2026 Qwen3.7-Plus, creating uncertainty around whether Alibaba will revive the Plus line or fold it into Max/Flash variants. Rumored Qwen4 timelines near September 2026 and ongoing competition from Anthropic and DeepSeek on benchmarks remain key swing factors for any 3.8+ Plus resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtMỚI
Sep 15, 2026
September 15
25%
September 30
7%
$5,800 KL.
September 15
$217 KL.
25%
September 30
$1,897 KL.
7%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Alibaba's next Qwen Plus model (3.8+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Qwen" and "Plus," be the flagship model of Alibaba's core Qwen Plus tier, and be designated as version 3.8 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 3.8 or higher named in the same manner as Qwen3.6-Plus or Qwen3.7-Plus would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Qwen4-Plus, while models whose name does not include "Plus" or which retain a version designation below 3.8, such as Qwen3.7-Max, Qwen3.6-Flash, or Qwen3.7-Plus, will not qualify. Derivative lines such as VL, Coder, Omni, or other specialized variants, such as Qwen3-VL-Plus, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Alibaba as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Alibaba, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Alibaba’s aggressive Qwen3.8 rollout in July–August 2026, including the July 19 preview and August 3 general availability of the 2.4-trillion-parameter Qwen3.8-Max (MoE with 95B active parameters, 1M context), followed by open weights and the August 26 Qwen3.8-Flash release, has shaped trader views on the next Plus-tier model at 3.8+. The series emphasizes coding, agentic workflows, and cost efficiency (Flash trained at roughly one-ninth the cost of prior Plus models), with architecture previews signaling Qwen4. No dedicated Qwen3.8-Plus has shipped, unlike the June 2026 Qwen3.7-Plus, creating uncertainty around whether Alibaba will revive the Plus line or fold it into Max/Flash variants. Rumored Qwen4 timelines near September 2026 and ongoing competition from Anthropic and DeepSeek on benchmarks remain key swing factors for any 3.8+ Plus resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Alibaba's next Qwen Plus model (3.8+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Qwen" and "Plus," be the flagship model of Alibaba's core Qwen Plus tier, and be designated as version 3.8 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 3.8 or higher named in the same manner as Qwen3.6-Plus or Qwen3.7-Plus would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Qwen4-Plus, while models whose name does not include "Plus" or which retain a version designation below 3.8, such as Qwen3.7-Max, Qwen3.6-Flash, or Qwen3.7-Plus, will not qualify. Derivative lines such as VL, Coder, Omni, or other specialized variants, such as Qwen3-VL-Plus, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Alibaba as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Alibaba, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Qwen" and "Plus," be the flagship model of Alibaba's core Qwen Plus tier, and be designated as version 3.8 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 3.8 or higher named in the same manner as Qwen3.6-Plus or Qwen3.7-Plus would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Qwen4-Plus, while models whose name does not include "Plus" or which retain a version designation below 3.8, such as Qwen3.7-Max, Qwen3.6-Flash, or Qwen3.7-Plus, will not qualify. Derivative lines such as VL, Coder, Omni, or other specialized variants, such as Qwen3-VL-Plus, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Alibaba as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Alibaba, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Aug 17, 2026, 9:43 AM ET
Khối lượng
$5,800Ngày kết thúc
Oct 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 17, 2026, 9:43 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Alibaba's next Qwen Plus model (3.8+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Qwen" and "Plus," be the flagship model of Alibaba's core Qwen Plus tier, and be designated as version 3.8 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 3.8 or higher named in the same manner as Qwen3.6-Plus or Qwen3.7-Plus would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Qwen4-Plus, while models whose name does not include "Plus" or which retain a version designation below 3.8, such as Qwen3.7-Max, Qwen3.6-Flash, or Qwen3.7-Plus, will not qualify. Derivative lines such as VL, Coder, Omni, or other specialized variants, such as Qwen3-VL-Plus, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Alibaba as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Alibaba, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Alibaba’s aggressive Qwen3.8 rollout in July–August 2026, including the July 19 preview and August 3 general availability of the 2.4-trillion-parameter Qwen3.8-Max (MoE with 95B active parameters, 1M context), followed by open weights and the August 26 Qwen3.8-Flash release, has shaped trader views on the next Plus-tier model at 3.8+. The series emphasizes coding, agentic workflows, and cost efficiency (Flash trained at roughly one-ninth the cost of prior Plus models), with architecture previews signaling Qwen4. No dedicated Qwen3.8-Plus has shipped, unlike the June 2026 Qwen3.7-Plus, creating uncertainty around whether Alibaba will revive the Plus line or fold it into Max/Flash variants. Rumored Qwen4 timelines near September 2026 and ongoing competition from Anthropic and DeepSeek on benchmarks remain key swing factors for any 3.8+ Plus resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Alibaba's next Qwen Plus model (3.8+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Qwen" and "Plus," be the flagship model of Alibaba's core Qwen Plus tier, and be designated as version 3.8 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 3.8 or higher named in the same manner as Qwen3.6-Plus or Qwen3.7-Plus would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Qwen4-Plus, while models whose name does not include "Plus" or which retain a version designation below 3.8, such as Qwen3.7-Max, Qwen3.6-Flash, or Qwen3.7-Plus, will not qualify. Derivative lines such as VL, Coder, Omni, or other specialized variants, such as Qwen3-VL-Plus, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Alibaba as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Alibaba, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Qwen" and "Plus," be the flagship model of Alibaba's core Qwen Plus tier, and be designated as version 3.8 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 3.8 or higher named in the same manner as Qwen3.6-Plus or Qwen3.7-Plus would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Qwen4-Plus, while models whose name does not include "Plus" or which retain a version designation below 3.8, such as Qwen3.7-Max, Qwen3.6-Flash, or Qwen3.7-Plus, will not qualify. Derivative lines such as VL, Coder, Omni, or other specialized variants, such as Qwen3-VL-Plus, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Alibaba as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Alibaba, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$5,800Ngày kết thúc
Oct 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 17, 2026, 9:43 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...Alibaba’s aggressive Qwen3.8 rollout in July–August 2026, including the July 19 preview and August 3 general availability of the 2.4-trillion-parameter Qwen3.8-Max (MoE with 95B active parameters, 1M context), followed by open weights and the August 26 Qwen3.8-Flash release, has shaped trader views on the next Plus-tier model at 3.8+. The series emphasizes coding, agentic workflows, and cost efficiency (Flash trained at roughly one-ninth the cost of prior Plus models), with architecture previews signaling Qwen4. No dedicated Qwen3.8-Plus has shipped, unlike the June 2026 Qwen3.7-Plus, creating uncertainty around whether Alibaba will revive the Plus line or fold it into Max/Flash variants. Rumored Qwen4 timelines near September 2026 and ongoing competition from Anthropic and DeepSeek on benchmarks remain key swing factors for any 3.8+ Plus resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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