Incumbent Democrat Don Davis holds a polling edge in North Carolina’s 1st Congressional District heading into the November 3 general election, with recent surveys showing him ahead of Republican Laurie Buckhout by margins ranging from 2 to 10 points. The district was redrawn in 2025 to favor Republicans more strongly, with Donald Trump carrying the new boundaries by roughly 12 points in 2024, yet Davis has sustained competitive or leading numbers in both Democratic- and Republican-sponsored polls through early October. Buckhout’s favorability has turned net negative in recent tracking, while Davis benefits from higher name recognition and incumbency in a rematch. Forecasters rate the seat as a toss-up or lean Republican, but trader consensus at 68% for Davis reflects the consistent polling resilience of the sitting member amid the altered partisan terrain.