A US-Israel air campaign against Iran, launched February 28 targeting nuclear sites, leadership, and missile facilities, prompted Iranian retaliation including Strait of Hormuz disruptions and strikes on Gulf allies. After over five weeks of escalation, a Pakistan-brokered two-week ceasefire took effect April 8, suspending major hostilities and enabling Islamabad talks on Iran's nuclear program and naval blockade lift, though Israel maintains operations in Lebanon outside its scope. President Trump warned of resumed airstrikes absent a deal by the April 22 expiration, while congressional bids to restrict further military action failed. Iran retains drone and missile stockpiles despite US claims of 90% degradation in projection power, fueling trader uncertainty over de-escalation.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtMilitary action against Iran ends by...?
Military action against Iran ends by...?
$31,804,712 KL.
Apr 30, 2026
April 1
No
April 2
No
April 3
No
April 4
No
April 5
No
April 6
No
April 7
No
April 8
No
April 9
Yes
April 10
Yes
April 11
Yes
April 12
Yes
April 13
Yes
April 14
Yes
April 15
Yes
April 16
Yes
April 17
Yes
April 18
Yes
April 19
Yes
April 20
Yes
April 21
Yes
April 22
Yes
April 23
Yes
April 24
Yes
April 25
Yes
April 26
Yes
April 27
Yes
April 28
Yes
April 29
Yes
April 30
Yes
$31,804,712 KL.
April 1
$10,254 KL.
No
April 2
$11,401 KL.
No
April 3
$8,242 KL.
No
April 4
$5,242 KL.
No
April 5
$3,932 KL.
No
April 6
$13,964 KL.
No
April 7
$3,627 KL.
No
April 8
$13,689 KL.
No
April 9
$237,471 KL.
Yes
April 10
$16,446 KL.
Yes
April 11
$32,861 KL.
Yes
April 12
$81,597 KL.
Yes
April 13
$93,184 KL.
Yes
April 14
$127,016 KL.
Yes
April 15
$101,486 KL.
Yes
April 16
$116,607 KL.
Yes
April 17
$28,778,655 KL.
Yes
April 18
$134,016 KL.
Yes
April 19
$64,443 KL.
Yes
April 20
$78,125 KL.
Yes
April 21
$80,720 KL.
Yes
April 22
$145,549 KL.
Yes
April 23
$99,012 KL.
Yes
April 24
$85,329 KL.
Yes
April 25
$104,695 KL.
Yes
April 26
$97,519 KL.
Yes
April 27
$97,649 KL.
Yes
April 28
$139,058 KL.
Yes
April 29
$311,523 KL.
Yes
April 30
$711,400 KL.
Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.A US-Israel air campaign against Iran, launched February 28 targeting nuclear sites, leadership, and missile facilities, prompted Iranian retaliation including Strait of Hormuz disruptions and strikes on Gulf allies. After over five weeks of escalation, a Pakistan-brokered two-week ceasefire took effect April 8, suspending major hostilities and enabling Islamabad talks on Iran's nuclear program and naval blockade lift, though Israel maintains operations in Lebanon outside its scope. President Trump warned of resumed airstrikes absent a deal by the April 22 expiration, while congressional bids to restrict further military action failed. Iran retains drone and missile stockpiles despite US claims of 90% degradation in projection power, fueling trader uncertainty over de-escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Mar 27, 2026, 2:04 PM ET
Khối lượng
$31,804,712Ngày kết thúc
Apr 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 27, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Kết quả đề xuất: No
Không tranh chấp
Kết quả cuối cùng: No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.A US-Israel air campaign against Iran, launched February 28 targeting nuclear sites, leadership, and missile facilities, prompted Iranian retaliation including Strait of Hormuz disruptions and strikes on Gulf allies. After over five weeks of escalation, a Pakistan-brokered two-week ceasefire took effect April 8, suspending major hostilities and enabling Islamabad talks on Iran's nuclear program and naval blockade lift, though Israel maintains operations in Lebanon outside its scope. President Trump warned of resumed airstrikes absent a deal by the April 22 expiration, while congressional bids to restrict further military action failed. Iran retains drone and missile stockpiles despite US claims of 90% degradation in projection power, fueling trader uncertainty over de-escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$31,804,712Ngày kết thúc
Apr 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 27, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Kết quả đề xuất: No
Không tranh chấp
Kết quả cuối cùng: No
A US-Israel air campaign against Iran, launched February 28 targeting nuclear sites, leadership, and missile facilities, prompted Iranian retaliation including Strait of Hormuz disruptions and strikes on Gulf allies. After over five weeks of escalation, a Pakistan-brokered two-week ceasefire took effect April 8, suspending major hostilities and enabling Islamabad talks on Iran's nuclear program and naval blockade lift, though Israel maintains operations in Lebanon outside its scope. President Trump warned of resumed airstrikes absent a deal by the April 22 expiration, while congressional bids to restrict further military action failed. Iran retains drone and missile stockpiles despite US claims of 90% degradation in projection power, fueling trader uncertainty over de-escalation.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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