The market-implied odds of 100% for “No” stem from the August 31 deadline having passed without any recorded megaquake—typically a magnitude 8.0 or greater event on the moment magnitude scale. USGS global seismic monitoring and international networks detected no qualifying earthquakes during the window, aligning with historical frequencies of roughly one to two such events annually. While tectonic stress accumulation along major fault systems can produce sudden large ruptures, the completed timeframe removes any remaining uncertainty. Resolution criteria focus strictly on verified magnitude thresholds and timing, leaving little room for reinterpretation unless official catalogs undergo rare retrospective revision.