Frank Scarpitti holds a commanding position in the 2026 Markham mayoral race due to his two-decade incumbency since 2006 and consistent re-election record, including 64 percent support in 2022. Nominations closed in late August with only two challengers—Martin Ross and Stephen Edgell—creating a limited field ahead of the October 16–26 voting period. Traders reflect this through Scarpitti’s 92.8 percent implied probability, driven by his oversight of municipal growth, infrastructure projects, and relatively low property tax increases compared to other GTA municipalities. Martin Ross trails at 7.5 percent, with his campaign focused on personal disputes with city administration. While the election remains active through late October, scenarios that could shift outcomes include unusually low turnout or late-breaking local controversies.