Nicolás Maduro faces U.S. federal charges including narco-terrorism conspiracy, cocaine importation, weapons offenses, and a recent superseding indictment adding conspiracy to commit torture of political opponents and American citizens. Captured in a January 2026 raid and held in Brooklyn's Metropolitan Detention Center, he awaits a June 2027 trial alongside his wife, with potential sentences including mandatory minimums of 50 years or life if convicted on all counts. Traders assign the highest probability to no prison time, reflecting uncertainty over conviction, possible dismissal on immunity grounds, plea outcomes, or political resolutions before sentencing. The notable share for 60+ years tracks the severity of the charges and mandatory penalties, while lower bands remain thin amid the extended pretrial timeline and ongoing legal motions through late 2026.