Official Korea Meteorological Administration forecasts establish a minimum temperature of 24°C for Incheon on August 10 under mostly cloudy skies and light easterly flow, aligning with the market’s 100% implied probability on that outcome. This reflects typical late-summer climatology for the Seoul-Incheon region, where average overnight lows hover near 23–24°C amid high humidity and weak steering patterns that limit nocturnal cooling. Recent model consensus shows minimal spread, with no incoming cold fronts or clear-sky radiative episodes expected to drive temperatures lower. The positioning incorporates traders’ assessment of forecast reliability near resolution, while realistic shifts—such as unexpected clearing or revised observational data—remain the primary variables that could alter the final recorded low.