**Traders have placed overwhelming confidence in the 64-65°F bin because official National Weather Service observations from Central Park recorded a minimum of 65°F on September 14, 2026.** Clear skies, light northerly winds, and dry air under a stable high-pressure ridge produced typical late-summer radiational cooling, resulting in a low only slightly above the 1991–2020 climatological average of 62.4°F. Model guidance issued in the preceding 48 hours consistently projected overnight lows in this narrow range, and no significant frontal passage or moisture intrusion occurred to alter the outcome. While an unusually strong cold-air outbreak or instrumentation discrepancy at the primary reporting station could theoretically shift the final value, such deviations are rare for this date and location, supporting the market’s near-certainty.