Official observations from the National Weather Service confirm overnight lows in the 76–77°F range at Austin-area stations on September 14, 2026, aligning with the market’s 100% implied probability for that bin. Persistent southerly flow, high dew points near 71°F, and clear skies under a strong subtropical ridge suppressed radiational cooling, keeping minimum temperatures well above the 1991–2020 climatological average of 68.4°F. Model guidance from the prior 48 hours had already converged on this outcome with minimal spread, and post-event verification data reinforced trader consensus. Only an undocumented station anomaly or revised quality-control adjustment would alter the recorded low, both of which remain highly improbable given multiple reporting sites.