Yashar, the centrist party led by former IDF chief Gadi Eisenkot, has held a narrow lead or tie with Likud in most October 2026 polls ahead of the October 27 Knesset election, with averages placing the party near 21-23 seats. This range aligns with an 18-20% national vote share once the 3.25% electoral threshold and surplus-vote agreements are factored in, which is why traders have assigned the highest probability to the 18-20% outcome. Recent surveys from Kantar, Lazar, and others show Yashar drawing support from suburban and former Likud voters through its emphasis on equal national service, a state inquiry into the October 7 attacks, and reconstruction priorities, while the anti-Netanyahu Zionist bloc remains short of a majority. Persistent uncertainty over final turnout, late shifts among undecided voters, and small-party threshold crossings keeps adjacent bins such as 20-22% and 16-18% competitive in the market pricing.