Recent polling averages place Shas, the Sephardi ultra-Orthodox party led by Aryeh Deri, at 7–8 Knesset seats ahead of the October 27 election, translating to roughly 6–7 percent of the vote. The tight spread between sub-6 percent and 6–7 percent outcomes reflects consistent but modest support amid the contentious ultra-Orthodox conscription debate, which has prompted Shas to add reservist candidates and run outreach messaging while its traditional base weighs loyalty against turnout pressures. Broader bloc competition, including shifts toward Likud or emerging lists, and final-week campaigning on draft legislation and coalition alignments continue to influence marginal voter movement without producing decisive separation in surveys.