Recent polls place Shas, the Sephardi ultra-Orthodox party led by Aryeh Deri, in a narrow band of roughly 7–9 Knesset seats as the October 27 election nears. Trader consensus reflects this tight range, with 8–9 seats holding the highest implied probability amid ongoing volatility between Netanyahu’s right-religious bloc and the opposition. Key influences include persistent debates over Haredi conscription that have strained coalition ties, Shas’s recent slate adjustments adding a reservist candidate to broaden appeal, and bloc-level seat swings that can shift smaller parties by one or two mandates. Late-campaign turnout among religious voters or last-minute alliances could separate the leading outcomes before ballots close.