Consistent polling across multiple surveys projects Ra'am winning around five Knesset seats in the October 27 election, with recent averages holding steady at that level amid a fragmented Arab vote. The Central Elections Committee's recent disqualification of Ra'am and the Joint List—pending Supreme Court review—has introduced procedural uncertainty that could affect turnout or ballot access for Arab parties. Ra'am's addition of a Jewish candidate to its list and its history of pragmatic coalition participation distinguish it from the Joint List, influencing how Arab voters split support between the two slates. These dynamics, combined with overall bloc competition and voter mobilization efforts, keep probabilities for four, five, or six seats closely clustered as the campaign enters its final weeks.