Recent polls from major Israeli outlets, including Channel 12, Channel 13, i24NEWS, and Walla, place Amcha Yisrael support between roughly 1.5% and 2.8% in the run-up to the October 27 Knesset election, with the party frequently falling short of the 3.25% threshold in surveys conducted over the past two weeks. Late developments, such as the October 13 withdrawal of candidate Davidi Ben-Zion citing threshold risks and public calls from Benjamin Netanyahu and Bezalel Smotrich for Ofer Winter to step aside to consolidate right-wing votes, have reinforced concerns about vote splitting. These factors align with the market's emphasis on sub-2.5% and low-single-digit outcomes as the prevailing trader consensus.