Recent polling consistently places Amcha Yisrael below or at the edge of the 3.25% electoral threshold required for Knesset entry, with figures around 1.5–1.8% in late October surveys from Channel 12 and others. The party, launched in late August by Ofer Winter, saw early support erode after the Religious Zionism-Zehut alliance and sustained Likud criticism aimed at preventing right-bloc vote fragmentation. A senior candidate’s October 13 withdrawal and public calls from Netanyahu and Smotrich for Winter to exit have reinforced perceptions of weakness. With the election set for October 27, traders view sub-4 seats as the most probable outcome given the sustained polling trend and structural barriers to clearing the threshold.