Iranian forces have maintained pressure on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz since declaring it closed in March 2026, with repeated threats and reported strikes reducing tanker traffic to multi-month lows. In late July 2026, Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen announced and began enforcing a naval blockade targeting Saudi Arabia via the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, claiming missile and drone strikes on at least two Saudi oil tankers. These actions expand disruption risks across two critical chokepoints, directly tying proxy operations to broader U.S.-Iran hostilities and affecting global energy flows. Trader assessments hinge on continued enforcement of these restrictions versus any de-escalation through diplomacy or military responses, with resolution likely tied to verifiable successful interdictions or sustained blockades in the coming weeks.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtIran successfully targets shipping on...?
Iran successfully targets shipping on...?
$1,149,470 KL.
Jun 26, 2026
June 26
No
June 27
Yes
June 28
No
June 29
No
June 30
No
July 1
No
July 2
No
July 3
No
July 4
No
July 5
No
July 6
No
July 7
Yes
July 8
No
July 9
No
July 10
No
July 11
No
July 12
Yes
July 13
No
July 14
Yes
July 15
No
July 16
No
July 17
No
July 19
No
July 20
Yes
July 21
No
July 22
No
July 23
No
July 24
No
July 25
No
July 26
No
July 27
No
July 28
No
July 29
No
July 30
No
July 31
No
$1,149,470 KL.
June 26
$53,305 KL.
No
June 27
$76,209 KL.
Yes
June 28
$41,622 KL.
No
June 29
$70,230 KL.
No
June 30
$63,002 KL.
No
July 1
$37,538 KL.
No
July 2
$32,646 KL.
No
July 3
$45,220 KL.
No
July 4
$137,937 KL.
No
July 5
$42,058 KL.
No
July 6
$76,320 KL.
No
July 7
$71,766 KL.
Yes
July 8
$71,683 KL.
No
July 9
$37,515 KL.
No
July 10
$13,861 KL.
No
July 11
$31,605 KL.
No
July 12
$41,177 KL.
Yes
July 13
$52,730 KL.
No
July 14
$23,388 KL.
Yes
July 15
$6,745 KL.
No
July 16
$16,743 KL.
No
July 17
$27,103 KL.
No
July 19
$14,349 KL.
No
July 20
$11,826 KL.
Yes
July 21
$21,471 KL.
No
July 22
$787 KL.
No
July 23
$14,082 KL.
No
July 24
$1,495 KL.
No
July 25
$1,089 KL.
No
July 26
$225 KL.
No
July 27
$20 KL.
No
July 28
$937 KL.
No
July 29
$1,687 KL.
No
July 30
$770 KL.
No
July 31
$10,330 KL.
No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iranian forces have maintained pressure on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz since declaring it closed in March 2026, with repeated threats and reported strikes reducing tanker traffic to multi-month lows. In late July 2026, Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen announced and began enforcing a naval blockade targeting Saudi Arabia via the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, claiming missile and drone strikes on at least two Saudi oil tankers. These actions expand disruption risks across two critical chokepoints, directly tying proxy operations to broader U.S.-Iran hostilities and affecting global energy flows. Trader assessments hinge on continued enforcement of these restrictions versus any de-escalation through diplomacy or military responses, with resolution likely tied to verifiable successful interdictions or sustained blockades in the coming weeks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Thị trường mở: Jun 25, 2026, 7:20 PM ET
Khối lượng
$1,149,470Ngày kết thúc
Jul 9, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 25, 2026, 7:20 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...Kết quả đề xuất: No
Không tranh chấp
Kết quả cuối cùng: No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iranian forces have maintained pressure on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz since declaring it closed in March 2026, with repeated threats and reported strikes reducing tanker traffic to multi-month lows. In late July 2026, Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen announced and began enforcing a naval blockade targeting Saudi Arabia via the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, claiming missile and drone strikes on at least two Saudi oil tankers. These actions expand disruption risks across two critical chokepoints, directly tying proxy operations to broader U.S.-Iran hostilities and affecting global energy flows. Trader assessments hinge on continued enforcement of these restrictions versus any de-escalation through diplomacy or military responses, with resolution likely tied to verifiable successful interdictions or sustained blockades in the coming weeks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Khối lượng
$1,149,470Ngày kết thúc
Jul 9, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 25, 2026, 7:20 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...Kết quả đề xuất: No
Không tranh chấp
Kết quả cuối cùng: No
Iranian forces have maintained pressure on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz since declaring it closed in March 2026, with repeated threats and reported strikes reducing tanker traffic to multi-month lows. In late July 2026, Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen announced and began enforcing a naval blockade targeting Saudi Arabia via the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, claiming missile and drone strikes on at least two Saudi oil tankers. These actions expand disruption risks across two critical chokepoints, directly tying proxy operations to broader U.S.-Iran hostilities and affecting global energy flows. Trader assessments hinge on continued enforcement of these restrictions versus any de-escalation through diplomacy or military responses, with resolution likely tied to verifiable successful interdictions or sustained blockades in the coming weeks.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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