Recent USGS data show the year's strongest earthquakes reached magnitude 7.8 in the Philippines and Indonesia, with no M8.0+ events recorded through early September. Global seismicity follows a Gutenberg-Richter distribution in which M8+ quakes remain statistically rare, averaging one to two annually, while the current quiet period after August activity offers little indication of imminent escalation. Trader-implied odds likely reflect this baseline rarity over the final 26 days, tempered by ongoing USGS monitoring of subduction zones and recent M6.3 activity in Alaska. No major forecast updates or aftershock sequences are scheduled to shift consensus before month-end.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHow strong of an earthquake will occur worldwide by September 30?
How strong of an earthquake will occur worldwide by September 30?
MỚI
Oct 3, 2026
6.5+
98%
7.0+
67%
7.5+
35%
8.0+
12%
8.5+
1%
9.0+
1%
$8,799 KL.
6.5+
$2,138 KL.
98%
7.0+
$2,135 KL.
67%
7.5+
$1,648 KL.
35%
8.0+
$2,305 KL.
12%
8.5+
$357 KL.
1%
9.0+
$216 KL.
1%
This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude equal to or above the threshold listed in the option's title occurring anywhere in the world, with an origin time between market creation and September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
A qualifying earthquake must be listed by USGS with a preferred magnitude equal to or above the threshold listed in the option's title and listed as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
If an earthquake with an origin time within this market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
Revisions to the underlying data, such as the preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."Recent USGS data show the year's strongest earthquakes reached magnitude 7.8 in the Philippines and Indonesia, with no M8.0+ events recorded through early September. Global seismicity follows a Gutenberg-Richter distribution in which M8+ quakes remain statistically rare, averaging one to two annually, while the current quiet period after August activity offers little indication of imminent escalation. Trader-implied odds likely reflect this baseline rarity over the final 26 days, tempered by ongoing USGS monitoring of subduction zones and recent M6.3 activity in Alaska. No major forecast updates or aftershock sequences are scheduled to shift consensus before month-end.
This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude equal to or above the threshold listed in the option's title occurring anywhere in the world, with an origin time between market creation and September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
A qualifying earthquake must be listed by USGS with a preferred magnitude equal to or above the threshold listed in the option's title and listed as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
If an earthquake with an origin time within this market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
Revisions to the underlying data, such as the preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying earthquake must be listed by USGS with a preferred magnitude equal to or above the threshold listed in the option's title and listed as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
If an earthquake with an origin time within this market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
Revisions to the underlying data, such as the preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
Thị trường mở: Aug 17, 2026, 2:01 PM ET
Khối lượng
$8,799Ngày kết thúc
Oct 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 17, 2026, 2:01 PM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Người giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude equal to or above the threshold listed in the option's title occurring anywhere in the world, with an origin time between market creation and September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
A qualifying earthquake must be listed by USGS with a preferred magnitude equal to or above the threshold listed in the option's title and listed as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
If an earthquake with an origin time within this market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
Revisions to the underlying data, such as the preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."Recent USGS data show the year's strongest earthquakes reached magnitude 7.8 in the Philippines and Indonesia, with no M8.0+ events recorded through early September. Global seismicity follows a Gutenberg-Richter distribution in which M8+ quakes remain statistically rare, averaging one to two annually, while the current quiet period after August activity offers little indication of imminent escalation. Trader-implied odds likely reflect this baseline rarity over the final 26 days, tempered by ongoing USGS monitoring of subduction zones and recent M6.3 activity in Alaska. No major forecast updates or aftershock sequences are scheduled to shift consensus before month-end.
This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude equal to or above the threshold listed in the option's title occurring anywhere in the world, with an origin time between market creation and September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
A qualifying earthquake must be listed by USGS with a preferred magnitude equal to or above the threshold listed in the option's title and listed as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
If an earthquake with an origin time within this market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
Revisions to the underlying data, such as the preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying earthquake must be listed by USGS with a preferred magnitude equal to or above the threshold listed in the option's title and listed as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
If an earthquake with an origin time within this market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
Revisions to the underlying data, such as the preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
Khối lượng
$8,799Ngày kết thúc
Oct 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 17, 2026, 2:01 PM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Người giải quyết
0x65070BE91...Recent USGS data show the year's strongest earthquakes reached magnitude 7.8 in the Philippines and Indonesia, with no M8.0+ events recorded through early September. Global seismicity follows a Gutenberg-Richter distribution in which M8+ quakes remain statistically rare, averaging one to two annually, while the current quiet period after August activity offers little indication of imminent escalation. Trader-implied odds likely reflect this baseline rarity over the final 26 days, tempered by ongoing USGS monitoring of subduction zones and recent M6.3 activity in Alaska. No major forecast updates or aftershock sequences are scheduled to shift consensus before month-end.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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