The 2025 mid-decade redistricting map enacted by Texas Republicans, which shifted several Democratic-leaning districts toward the GOP and targeted gains of three to five seats, remains the central factor shaping trader views on Democratic totals. Recent polling in South Texas battlegrounds, including leads for incumbents Henry Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez plus competitive showings in the 15th District, has tempered expectations of large Republican net gains under the new lines. With eleven open seats and a national midterm environment historically favoring the opposition party, outcomes between 10 and 13 Democratic seats reflect ongoing uncertainty over whether Democrats can limit losses in redrawn districts or offset them elsewhere. Further polling shifts, candidate performance in the Rio Grande Valley, or late developments in suburban North Texas could widen the range of likely results before November.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật12 22%
13 16%
10 16%
11 15%
$13,333 KL.
$13,333 KL.
Nov 2, 2026
<8
1%
8
4%
9
10%
10
16%
11
15%
12
22%
13
16%
14+
13%
12 22%
13 16%
10 16%
11 15%
$13,333 KL.
$13,333 KL.
Nov 2, 2026
<8
$236 KL.
1%
8
$4,130 KL.
4%
9
$1,046 KL.
10%
10
$1,380 KL.
16%
11
$740 KL.
15%
12
$929 KL.
22%
13
$1,962 KL.
16%
14+
$2,911 KL.
13%
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Texas in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Texas US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.The 2025 mid-decade redistricting map enacted by Texas Republicans, which shifted several Democratic-leaning districts toward the GOP and targeted gains of three to five seats, remains the central factor shaping trader views on Democratic totals. Recent polling in South Texas battlegrounds, including leads for incumbents Henry Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez plus competitive showings in the 15th District, has tempered expectations of large Republican net gains under the new lines. With eleven open seats and a national midterm environment historically favoring the opposition party, outcomes between 10 and 13 Democratic seats reflect ongoing uncertainty over whether Democrats can limit losses in redrawn districts or offset them elsewhere. Further polling shifts, candidate performance in the Rio Grande Valley, or late developments in suburban North Texas could widen the range of likely results before November.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Texas in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Texas US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All Texas US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Aug 11, 2026, 10:14 AM ET
Khối lượng
$13,333Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 11, 2026, 10:14 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Texas in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Texas US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.The 2025 mid-decade redistricting map enacted by Texas Republicans, which shifted several Democratic-leaning districts toward the GOP and targeted gains of three to five seats, remains the central factor shaping trader views on Democratic totals. Recent polling in South Texas battlegrounds, including leads for incumbents Henry Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez plus competitive showings in the 15th District, has tempered expectations of large Republican net gains under the new lines. With eleven open seats and a national midterm environment historically favoring the opposition party, outcomes between 10 and 13 Democratic seats reflect ongoing uncertainty over whether Democrats can limit losses in redrawn districts or offset them elsewhere. Further polling shifts, candidate performance in the Rio Grande Valley, or late developments in suburban North Texas could widen the range of likely results before November.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Texas in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Texas US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All Texas US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$13,333Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 11, 2026, 10:14 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...The 2025 mid-decade redistricting map enacted by Texas Republicans, which shifted several Democratic-leaning districts toward the GOP and targeted gains of three to five seats, remains the central factor shaping trader views on Democratic totals. Recent polling in South Texas battlegrounds, including leads for incumbents Henry Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez plus competitive showings in the 15th District, has tempered expectations of large Republican net gains under the new lines. With eleven open seats and a national midterm environment historically favoring the opposition party, outcomes between 10 and 13 Democratic seats reflect ongoing uncertainty over whether Democrats can limit losses in redrawn districts or offset them elsewhere. Further polling shifts, candidate performance in the Rio Grande Valley, or late developments in suburban North Texas could widen the range of likely results before November.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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