Democrats currently hold nine of New Jersey’s twelve House seats, with Republicans occupying the second, fourth, and seventh districts. The market’s strong preference for a ten-seat Democratic outcome centers on the competitive seventh district, where Republican incumbent Tom Kean Jr. faces Democratic nominee Rebecca Bennett in a race rated toss-up or lean Democratic by most forecasters. June 2026 primaries finalized candidates, and Democratic performance in the 2025 gubernatorial election across suburban districts has reinforced expectations of a net gain there. Safer Democratic seats, including the open third and twelfth districts, show little risk of loss, while the two solidly Republican seats remain out of reach. The modest probability attached to eleven or more seats reflects limited polling evidence of broader gains, and the lower odds on nine seats track the assessment that Kean faces an uphill path in the current environment.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật10 64%
9 19%
11+ 16%
<8 <1%
MỚI
MỚI
Nov 2, 2026
<8
1%
8
1%
9
19%
10
64%
11+
31%
10 64%
9 19%
11+ 16%
<8 <1%
MỚI
MỚI
Nov 2, 2026
<8
$194 KL.
1%
8
$134 KL.
1%
9
$828 KL.
19%
10
$497 KL.
64%
11+
$228 KL.
31%
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in New Jersey in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All New Jersey US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Democrats currently hold nine of New Jersey’s twelve House seats, with Republicans occupying the second, fourth, and seventh districts. The market’s strong preference for a ten-seat Democratic outcome centers on the competitive seventh district, where Republican incumbent Tom Kean Jr. faces Democratic nominee Rebecca Bennett in a race rated toss-up or lean Democratic by most forecasters. June 2026 primaries finalized candidates, and Democratic performance in the 2025 gubernatorial election across suburban districts has reinforced expectations of a net gain there. Safer Democratic seats, including the open third and twelfth districts, show little risk of loss, while the two solidly Republican seats remain out of reach. The modest probability attached to eleven or more seats reflects limited polling evidence of broader gains, and the lower odds on nine seats track the assessment that Kean faces an uphill path in the current environment.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in New Jersey in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All New Jersey US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All New Jersey US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Aug 11, 2026, 10:06 AM ET
Khối lượng
$1,881Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 11, 2026, 10:06 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in New Jersey in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All New Jersey US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Democrats currently hold nine of New Jersey’s twelve House seats, with Republicans occupying the second, fourth, and seventh districts. The market’s strong preference for a ten-seat Democratic outcome centers on the competitive seventh district, where Republican incumbent Tom Kean Jr. faces Democratic nominee Rebecca Bennett in a race rated toss-up or lean Democratic by most forecasters. June 2026 primaries finalized candidates, and Democratic performance in the 2025 gubernatorial election across suburban districts has reinforced expectations of a net gain there. Safer Democratic seats, including the open third and twelfth districts, show little risk of loss, while the two solidly Republican seats remain out of reach. The modest probability attached to eleven or more seats reflects limited polling evidence of broader gains, and the lower odds on nine seats track the assessment that Kean faces an uphill path in the current environment.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in New Jersey in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All New Jersey US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All New Jersey US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$1,881Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 11, 2026, 10:06 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Democrats currently hold nine of New Jersey’s twelve House seats, with Republicans occupying the second, fourth, and seventh districts. The market’s strong preference for a ten-seat Democratic outcome centers on the competitive seventh district, where Republican incumbent Tom Kean Jr. faces Democratic nominee Rebecca Bennett in a race rated toss-up or lean Democratic by most forecasters. June 2026 primaries finalized candidates, and Democratic performance in the 2025 gubernatorial election across suburban districts has reinforced expectations of a net gain there. Safer Democratic seats, including the open third and twelfth districts, show little risk of loss, while the two solidly Republican seats remain out of reach. The modest probability attached to eleven or more seats reflects limited polling evidence of broader gains, and the lower odds on nine seats track the assessment that Kean faces an uphill path in the current environment.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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